Alabama is a 4.5 point favorite in this game and that is about right. They are an immensely talented team and proved it with a convincing win over Florida.
Meanwhile, Texas enters the game coming off of an unconvincing, almost disastrous, 1-point escape against Nebraska. This has been the focus of much of the national football writers' articles on the game as well as much of the discussion. I find myself increasingly frustrated with this phenomenon and here is why.
Texas was unimpressive and it does raise valid questions as to how Texas might perform against Alabama's dominating defense. I do not dispute this at all. However, most commentators continue to overlook two potentially relevant/important points:
1st -- It might be fair to slightly reevaluate that Nebraska game in light of Nebraska's performance in its bowl game in which it absolutely annihilated an Arizona team (that averaged 27+ points per game) 33-0.
2nd and most importantly, not one of the articles I have read or tv segments watched has mentioned either of its close calls against Tennessee and Auburn (its last game of the regular season).
If you will recall, Bama needed a blocked field goal to escape the Volunteers at home and trailed the entire game against Auburn. Neither of these teams could rightly be called world-beaters. One different play in either game and we are not even talking about Bama just like we would not be about Texas had one more second ticked off the clock.
These games show that Bama is not invincible, rather they are fallable and this was shown on not one, but two occasions.
Again, Bama is rightly the favorite, but when so much of the analysis is being based on a single game, ignoring Bama's closest calls seems absurd.
My Prediction:
Texas limits the Bama ground attack, but Bama is still able to move the ball between the 20s (passes to RBs may become an important part of the Bama offense to take advantage of an agressive Texas defense). It is in the red zone where the Bama offense stalls leading to three Tiffin FGs. A key McCoy INT (one of two McCoy turnovers) sets up one of Bama's two TDs.
Bama also limits the Texas running game, but McCoy has some success scrambling to keep a few plays alive. Bama employs a 1-deep safety look to take away the short passing game that makes up so much of the Texas offense. However, this leaves Bama vulnerable deep and McCoy capitalizes hitting Malcolm Williams for a long TD.
In the end Texas gets a defensive or special teams TD that turns out to be the difference.
Texas wins 24-23
qe2
13 years ago