NFL Week 16 Best Bets

$50 4-Team Parlay of the Week (Pays $614) NE -14.5 PIT -3.5 NYG -2.5 WAS -6.5 $50 4 Team Teaser (Pays $140) NE -13.5 GB -9.5 PIT -2.5 IND -6

Round 1 Mock Draft (Player in bold = team's pick; player in () is another player the team might take if the other player is not available) 1. IND Andrew Luck QB 2. WAS Robert Griffin QB 3. MIN Matt Kalil OT (Morris Claiborne CB) 4. CLE Trent Richardson RB (Justin Blackmon WR) 5. TB Morris Claiborne CB (Trent Richardson RB) (Luke Kuechly LB) 6. STL Justin Blackmon WR (Matt Kalil OT) (Fletcher Cox DT) 7. JAX Whitney Mercilus DE (Stephon Gillmore CB) (Justin Blackmon WR) 8. MIA Ryan Tannehill QB (Michael Floyd WR) 9. CAR Fletcher Cox DT (Stephon Gillmore CB) (Luke Kuechly LB) 10. BUF Michael Floyd WR (Luke Kuechly LB) (Stephon Gillmore) 11. KC Luke Kuechly LB (Dontari Poe NT) (Mark Barron S) 12. SEA Melvin Ingram DE (Chandler Jones DE) (David DeCastro OG) 13. ARZ Riley Reiff OT (Melvin Ingram DE) (David DeCastro OG) 14. DAL Mark Barron S (Quinton Coples DE) (Michael Brockers DL) 15. PHI Michael Brockers DT (Mark Barron S) (Fletcher Cox DT) 16. NYJ Chandler Jones DE (Michael Floyd WR) (Riley Reiff OT) 17. CIN David Decastro OG (Stephon Gillmore CB) (Dre Kirkpatrick CB) 18. SD Cordy Glenn OT (Chandler Jones DE) (Dontari Poe NT) 19. CHI Quinton Coples DE (Stephon Gillmore CB) (Whitney Mercilus DE) 20. TEN Stephon Gillmore CB (Dre Kirkpatrick CB) (Stephen Hill WR) 21. CIN Stephen Hill WR (Dre Kirkpatrick CB) (Kendall Wright WR) 22. CLE Kendall Wright WR (Stephen Hill WR) (Cordy Glenn OT) 23. DET Dre Kirkpatrick CB (Jonathan Martin OT) (Bobby Massie OT) 24. PIT Dontari Poe NT (Dont'a Hightower LB) (Cordy Glenn OT) 25. DEN Kendall Reyes DT (Jerel Worthy DT) (Kevin Zeitler OG) 26. HOU Coby Fleener TE (Kendall Wright WR) (Stephen Hill WR) 27. NE Courtney Upshaw DE (Shea McClellin LB) (Kendall Reyes DL) 28. GB Shea McClellin LB (Harrison Smith S) (Nick Perry LB) 29. BAL Dont'a Hightower LB (Kevin Zeitler G) (Bobby Massie OT) 30. SF Kevin Zeitler OG (Jerel Worthy DE) (Jeff Allen OL) 31. NE Harrison Smith S (Derek Wolfe DL) (Janoris Jenkins CB) 32. NYG Jonathon Martin OT (Bobby Massie OT) (Coby Fleener TE)

2011 Mock Draft

2011 MLB Predictions

AL East
1. Boston
2. Tampa Bay
3. New York
4. Toronto
5. Baltimore

AL Central
1. Chicago
2. Detroit
3. Minnesota
4. Cleveland
5. Kansas City

AL West
1. Texas
2. Oakland
3. LA Angels
4. Seattle

NL East
1. Philadelphia
2. Atlanta
3. Florida
4. NY Mets
5. Washington

NL Central
1. Milwaukee
2. Cincinnati
3. St. Louis
4. Chicago
5. Houston
6. Pittsburgh

NL West
1. San Francisco
2. Colorado
3. LA Dodgers
4. San Diego
5. Arizona

Toughest Race: NL Wild Card between Atlanta, Cincy, and Colorado

Awards

CY Young
AL: Jered Weaver
NL: Clayton Kershaw

MVP
AL: Adam Dunn
NL: Ryan Braun

ROY
AL: Jeremy Hellickson
NL: Freddie Freeman

Playoffs
Boston over Detroit
Texas over Chicago

Philadelphia over Cincinnati
Milwaukee over San Francisco

Boston over Texas

Philadelphia over Milwaukee

Boston over Philadelphia

Derrick Rose

I just listened to Ryan Russelo and Mike Tirico slurp D-Rose for 15 minutes saying he is without question the best PG in the NBA. I love Rose. He is flat out nasty, but he is not better than Chris Paul and certainly not better without question.

Rose: 24.9 pts 8.2 asts 4.2 rbs 1 stls 3.5 TOs .450 FG% .355 3PT% .838 FT% 23.32 PER
Paul: 16.2 pts 9.6 asts 3.9 rbs 2.5 stls 2.4 TOs .476 FG% .436 3PT% .896 FT 24.65 PER

Before you look at the scoring totals consider that Rose takes 20.2 shots per game compared to only 11.2 for Paul. Then there is Paul's 4/1 assist to turnover ratio compared to 2.3 for Rose.

Finally, Paul's team, which has less talented players is right in the thick of things (5th seed) in the tougher conference. NO is 17-7 against the East.

Again, I love both and given my concerns about Paul's knee I might take Rose if I was starting a franchise. The point though is that Paul is still the best PG in the NBA.

My wine cellar team

The premise comes from Bill Simmons' Big Book of Basketball. The idea is that the fate of the universe is at stake. You have to put together a 12 man team to face 12 basketball playing Martians with the fate of the universe at stake. So it is not just the 12 best players, but the best actual team that works together as a unit.
Also, it is not just a player like Magic in general, but a specific year ("vintage") of that particular player.

First I give you Simmons team as a benchmark:
Starters: '77 Kareem, '03 Duncan, '86 Bird, '92 Jordan, '85 Magic
Bench: '86 McHale, '92 Pippen, '09 Wade, '77 Walton, '10 LeBron, '09 Chris Paul, '01 Ray Allen

A great team for sure, but clearly Simmons fell for a bunch of Celtics.

Simmons limited his team to players whom he actually saw live so I will do the same. That makes the cut off the '92 Finals.

My team:
Starters: '92 Jordan, '03 Duncan, '94 Olajuwon, '10 LeBron, '09 Paul
Bench: '01 Kobe, '94 Robinson, '97 Malone, '96 Pippen, '96 Gary Payton, '07 Dirk, '03Tracy McGrady

My team emphasizes three key principles:
1) Defense
2) Versatility
3) No achilles heal

With respect to defense, it is difficult for me to imagine how anyone could score against a lineup of Olajuwon, Duncan, Pippen, Jordan, and Payton. (39 combined 1st team All-Defensive teams)

Tough choice #1: '07 Dirk over '04 KG - I had to give on my defense rule to get a guy that perhaps not even Martians could guard when he is at his best. '07 Dirk had the most impressive shooting season a big has ever had: .502 FG% .416 3PT% .904 FT%. Toss in 9 rbs and 3.5 asts and you have a perfect compliment for this team. He is the big long range shooter to create space on the floor for the others.

Tough choice #2: '94 David Robinson over '00 Shaq - This all came down to one basic thing--could I accept Shaq's atrocious FT shooting for his utter dominance. In the end the answer was no. I just couldn't put mankind through having to watch Shaq at the FT line with their very existence at stake.

Tough choice #3: '03 T-Mac over '10 Kevin Durant - this was for the I can get my shot off over anyone spot on the roster. In defense of my picking T-Mac:
See the video... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ceLlz7dOOvY

T-Mac for all of his shortcomings was one of the most unique/unguardable scorers in basketball history. His size/athleticism/skill level rivaled anyone to ever play the game. His other failings though are why he is the 12th man on my team and no higher. (Clearly never winning a playoff series is the black mark on his career, but its not as if he choked or shrunk his game in the playoffs. In 38 playoff games T-Mac averaged 28.5 pts 6.7 rbs 6.5 asts and his PER of 24.7 in those 38 playoff games is one of the best ever). At the end of the day though if we are playing martians for the fate of earth I want one of the most other-worldly scorers the universe has ever seen on my team. You know...just in case we get down late and need somebody to score 13 points in 37 seconds.

Toughest inclusion: Gary Payton - He had clubhouse issues and only shot .317% from 3 for his career (making not a perfect fit since he doesn't exactly stretch the floor in the half court), but with the fate of mankind hanging in the balance I am going to hope that the best defensive PG to ever play the game can keep his act together for one seven game series.

On picking Olajuwon as my starting center:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0GCyU0sKxqI&feature=related (Just fastforward to the #1 play. No other center we have seen could do that).
Bill Simmons discussed a stat called "stocks" (just steals plus blocks). He described it as a good measure of a players athleticism and the defensive havoc they caused on the court. Olajuwon finished with 5,992 stocks. No other post-1974 player even eclipsed 4,500. His 12 300 stock seasons were double Kareem and Ewing's 6 combined and no other player had more than 7. As Simmons puts it: "No modern center was better offensively AND defensively than Dream." Oh and then there is the '95 playoffs when he beat Karl Malone, Charles Barkley, David Robinson, and Shaq in a row. In a golden age of centers (Ewing, Robinson, Dream, Mourning, Shaq, Mutumbo, etc.) Dream was the best of them all and he proved it on the court.

Quick Updated NFL Predictions

NFC Playoff Teams:

Giants, Eagles, Packers, Saints, Falcons, Seattle


AFC Playoff Teams:

Patriots, Jets, Steelers, Ravens, Colts, Chiefs

Colin Cowherd is awful again

Statement: "Bill Belichick is 8-0 after bye weeks"

Fact: This doesn't even pass the smell test because this is his 11th season as Patriots head coach thus his 11th game after a bye week. He lost after a bye week in 2000 and 2002. Therefore, he is 9-2 after bye weeks--still impressive, but not undefeated as Cowherd's words would suggest.

Statement: "Aaron Rogers is 7-13 in games decided by 7 points or less, but he is great in blowouts. He is not clutch."

Analysis: Let's think about the logic of this statement. Isn't it more likely the case that the games are close because his numbers are bad (in those games) than his numbers are bad because the games are close. Similarly, isnt it likely that the blowouts are blowouts because his numbers are good and not the other way around. That is, the game will usually be closer when the quarterback plays worse whereas if he has an awesome game chances are his team wins by more than 7 points.


Last week Cowherd takes full credit for seeing the Moss trade coming and spends 5 minutes replaying the soundbite and taking credit for it. On Friday Cowherd spent 5 minutes detailing how and why Nebraska is going to kill Texas and predicts a 41-17 beatdown. When recapping the weekends games, that game is not mentioned once.

NBA Mega Trade

New Jersey gets:
SF Carmelo Anthony
PG Chris Paul
C Emeka Okafor

Denver gets:
PF Derrick Favors
SF Damion James
PF Troy Murphy
NJ's 2013 and 2015 1st rd. pick

New Orleans gets:
C Brook Lopez
PG Devin Harris
PF Kris Humphries
NJ's 2011 1st rd. pick

Washington gets:
G/F Terrence Williams
SF Quinton Ross
$3 mil cash
2nd rd. pick

Analysis:

New Jersey:
The Nets get there dynamic duo. In Paul and Anthony the Nets get 2 of the 10 best players in league. The franchise now has two young stars in their primes as they gear up for the eventual move to Brooklyn. This move does completely deplete the depth of the team and creates a gigantic hole at PF where NJ will likely be forced to start well past his prime Joe Smith this season before being able to add someone via the MLE next offseason.

Denver:
In return for Anthony who is almost certain to leave after this season, Denver gets Favors, the 3rd overall pick in this year's draft. Favors is raw, but has All-Pro potential. James, the 24th pick in this past years draft, is an athletic forward who can swing between the 3 and the 4. The addition of these two officially begins the Denver rebuilding process and it does so with a bang. Finally, Murphy, who is still a quality player, should net Denver even more assets at the trade deadline on account of not just his playing ability, but because of his $12 mil expiring contract. Financially, Denver goes from $15 million over the luxury tax threshold in 10-11 to $11 mil under the salary cap (before draft picks) next offseason. The cap space and rebuilding assets could be even greater if Denver chooses to shop Chauncey Billups. Denver also gets two future 1st rd. pick from NJ.

New Orleans:
This deal forces the Hornets to part with the best PG in basketball and the face of their franchise. However, it might be a move they have to make given Paul's apparent desire to leave once his current deal expires. This trade gets the Hornets two young pieces including a 23 year old all-star center. Moreover, it gets NO out from under Okafor's burdensome contract. Additionally, NJ's 2011 first round pick could also turn out to be a decent asset as the Nets are forced to deplete their roster in this deal. Finally, but perhaps most importantly, after this trade New Orleans will go into next offseason approximately $31 million under the cap (this assumed David West does not exercise his $7 mil player option, which he wont). Therefore, they will have more cap space than any other team.

Washington:
Washington essentially just gets paid to make this trade work under the cap.

Post-trade lineups:

New Orleans:
C Brook Lopez
PF David West
SF Trevor Ariza
SG Marcus Thornton
PG Devin Harris

New Jersey:
C Emeka Okafor
PF Joe Smith
SF Carmelo Anthony
SG Anthony Morrow
PG Chris Paul

Denver:
C Nene
PF Troy Murphy
SF Damion James
SG J.R. Smith
PG Chauncey Billups

AL Cy Young - Welcome to the 21st Century

On PTI Wilbon and Kornheiser said they would not give the Cy Young to Seattle's Felix Hernandez because he hasn't won enough games.

Hernandez leads the league in ERA, Ks, and IP. But he only has a 13-12 record. (Before moving on consider that the rest of the Seattle pitching staff is a combined 48-84).

Wilbon calls WHIP and Sabermetrics "junk" and says you still have to win the games.

Funny thing is your offense has to score runs for you to win. You cannot get wins unless your team scores runs and a pitcher, especially in the AL has no control over that.

Wilbon instead said Sabathia should probably get it because he has 21 wins. Well, the Yankees have scored an average of 5.61 runs per game in Sabathia's 34 starts.

In Hernandez's 12 losses, the Mariner's scored a combined 14 runs or 1.17 runs per game. Overall, the Mariner's scored 2.97 runs per game in Hernadez's 34 starts.

That is a 2.64 run per game difference.

Wins are a relatively unreliable indicator of pitching performance at least relative to other available measures like WHIP.

In 2003 Jeriome Robertson went 15-9 for the Astros. That is a better record than Hernandez has. That year Robertson's ERA was 5.10, his WHIP was 1.51 and he walked almost as many batters as he struck out. That year though the Astros scored a ton of runs during his starts (5.56).

The win argument makes everyone look dumber. Stop making it.

Added:

Hernandez against the Yankees this season: 3-0, 0.35 ERA (1 run in 26 IP)

Childhood Obesity & Pork Politics

Some of you may know that childhood obesity is a topic I am interested in and feel strongly about. This week the Senate passed a bill that will call for "healthier" school lunches as well as what can be sold in school vending machines. (Story in link below).

The new nutrition standards would not remove popular foods like pizzas from schools completely, but would make them healthier, using whole-wheat crust or low-fat mozzarella, for example. Vending machines could be stocked with less candy and fewer high-calorie sodas.

Decisions on what kinds of foods will be sold — and what ingredients may be limited — would be left up to the Agriculture Department.

I have long advocated action in this area and am hopeful that the Agriculture Department will draw appropriate and meaningful guidelines. This is a tricky area as the temptation to be overly paternalistic is an easy one and one that often gets the best of me.

Furthermore, what this move controls is only the food American students have access to for one meal a day. A breakfast featuring sugar loaded cereal (making students prone to crash in the morning and reduce focus and performance in the classroom) joined with some sugary drinks after school and a less than healthy dinner makes these lunchtime changes almost trivial.

Again, this is a move in the right direction, but it is a culture shift we need not just a dietary adjustment.

The disconcerning political part of all of this comes at the bottom of the story.

Part of the deal to move the legislation this week was to change the way it was paid for. While the committee bill partially paid for the legislation by reducing conservation subsidies paid to farmers for using environmentally friendly farming practices, the Senate-passed bill took $2.2 billion out of future funding for food stamp programs instead after some farm-state senators objected to using the subsidy money.

Hunger advocates who had previously supported the bill said they would now oppose it.

I don't know whether cutting subsidies to farmers or reducing food stamp benefits is the more prudent way to fund this legislation, but it just jumps out at me how these games are played.

NFL Over/Under Picks

Here are my season picks for NFL team wins from the current Vegas lines:

Denver 7.5 -- Under
Dallas 10 -- Over
Patriots 9.5 -- Over
Steelers 8.5 -- Under
Rams 5 -- Under
Redskins 7.5 -- Under
Seahawks 7.5 -- Under

NBA FUTURE POWER RANKINGS

This is my take on an ESPN NBA Feature that ranks all 30 NBA Teams in 5 categories in an effort to rank their relative strength going forward for the 2011-2012, 2012-2013, and 2013-2014 seasons.

The categories are: Players, Management, Money, Market, Draft

Players: Current players and their potential for the future, factoring in expected departures

Management: Quality and stability of front office, ownership, coaching

Money: Projected salary-cap situation; ability and willingness to exceed cap and pay luxury tax

Market: Appeal to future acquisitions based on team quality, franchise reputation, city's desirability as a destination, market size, taxes, business and entertainment opportunities, arena quality, fans

Draft: Future draft picks; draft positioning

Points are assigned for each category: Players 0-400; Management and Money 0-200 each; Draft 0-150; Market 0-100

After assigning values to each the results I came up with fell into fairly clear tiers.

TIER ONE

Miami Heat
Oklahoma City Thunder

TIER TWO

LA Lakers
Chicago Bulls
Houston Rockets
Orlando Magic
Portland Trailblazers

TIER THREE

Utah Jazz
Denver Nuggets

TIER FOUR

San Antonio Spurs
Boston Celtics
Dallas Mavericks

TIER FIVE

LA Clippers
Sacramento Kings
New York Knicks
Washington Wizards
Atlanta Hawks
Milwaukee Bucks
New Jersey Nets
Indiana Pacers

TIER SIX

Memphis Grizzlies
Detroit Pistons
Phoenix Suns
New Orleans Hornets
Toronto Raptors
Golden State Warriors

TIER SEVEN

Minnesota Timberwolves
Cleveland Cavaliers
Charlotte Bobcats

Year-Round School

What are the arguments against year-round school?

I can think of so many arguments for it, but I would certainly like to hear any arguments for why it is a bad idea.

The NBA, Race & Economics

The following is an excerpt from a column by Dr. Boyce Watkins for thGrio.com:

Third, one area where race does enter the picture is the fact that NBA players (most of whom are black) are certainly the property of the league. Most of the players think they're getting rich, when the truth is that they are being financially pimp-slapped.

Collective bargaining agreements keep salaries so restricted that players are not earning anything near their full market value. Not to say that we should ever feel sorry for someone earning millions of dollars per year, but a fair market would have led to Kobe Bryant earning over $50 million per year, since he brings at least that much to the Lakers organization with his presence.

Instead, that money gets pocketed by the owners. Additionally, when one throws in the manner by which players are controlled by the league in almost every aspect of their lives, William Rhoden's concept of the "40 million dollar slave" is certainly in full-effect.

It is frustrating to read things like this. I would like to ask Dr. Watkins if what is being done to NBA players is a financial "pimp slapping" then what would he describe regular employees who are being laid off, who dont have guaranteed contracts, and many of those whom have kept their jobs have seen benefits begin to fall?

I don't want to get caught up in semantics though so let's get to the meat of this. His statements evidence a horribly flawed understanding of the CBA system. The CBA system is not a "star system". The CBA hurts stars and helps your average to below average players. Having a system like he described would be the most damaging thing possible for all except a few. Yes, without a CBA Kobe would make $50 million. LeBron would have made $70 million. What Watkins completely overlooks is the flip-side of that coin. If LeBron is making $70 million, that money is largely coming out of his teammates pockets. There is no way in a non-CBA system Daniel Gibson gets a guaranteed 5 year $20 million contract. There is no way Amir Johnson gets 5 years $32 million. The limit on the exorbitant earnings of the elite players benefits all of the other players (as Dr. Watkins points out, most of whom are black).

Think of it this way. If the Cavs were making a movie last year and their players were the cast how would everyone get paid. You would pay your star Denzel Washington (LeBron) $25-$30 million. Then you probably have your 2-3 supporting actors that lets say make $10 million (Halle Berry, Christian Bale). Guess how the rest of the cast is filled out. Everyone else makes $2 million or less and many below $1 million.

Watkins's idea of what would be a better system for NBA players would drastically cut the earnings of most of the league's players. Right now the least an NBA veteran is allowed to be paid is $1.4 million and the average NBA salary is over $5 million a year.

The idea of control is also slightly misguided. Highly paid professionals in most industries are often controlled in many ways whether directly or indirectly so as to protect the image of business and the relationship of the business with partners, sponsors, customers, etc.

I have no doubt that racism still exists and that it still happens that, a minority will be at a disadvantage and have to work harder than his white counterpart to achieve the same compensation. It is these jobs--the everyday jobs that affect millions more than those unfortunate few subjected to being controlled and forced to play a game they love for $5 million per year.

1 in 4 US households makes under $25,000 per year. One of those households would have to work for 160 years to make what Daniel Gibson made this season playing for the Cavs. Gibson averaged 6 points and 1 assist in 19 minutes per game.

NBA Economics, Kuselias

NBA Economics:

The luxury tax in the NBA is extremely penal -- dollar for dollar. Let's take the Rockets who are now over the luxury tax ($9 mil over). They are paying David Andersen 2.5 mil next year, but because of the luxury tax they are effectively paying him 5 mil.

If I am the Rockets GM I am calling up teams with trade exceptions or cap space like Cleveland and working on a win-win deal. The Cavs lost some guy named LeBron, but they also lost both of their centers. Andersen is nothing special, but he can be a rotation big. Therefore,

Rockets trade Andersen and 1.5 mil in cash for a 2nd round pick.

Effect: With the signing of Brad Miller, the Rockets have Yao, Miller, Hill, and Hayes at C. The chances of Andersen seeing the floor were slight. This trade gives the Cavs a solid backup big that they will only have to pay $1 mil and all they give up is a future 2nd rd. pick. Meanwhile, this deal saves the Rockets $3.5 mil.

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ESPN Radio's Erik Kuselias

Called Michael Jordan's comments on LeBron--basically that he never would have called up Bird and Magic and say lets play together because I wanted to beat those guys--disingenuous because he didnt have to call them because the Bulls "hooked you up with great players...they surrounded Jordan with great players. He didnt win anything before they did."

As a side note: Jordan was losing to dominant Celtics teams and the bad boy Pistons. Jordan wasnt exactly losing to the vaunted 2009 Magic or an aging Boston Big Three that didnt have home court.

Then let's look at Jordan's first title team and point out all the great players since Kuselias said Jordan was "surrounded by them" as in more than just Pippen who we know was indeed great.

The Bulls rotation (top 8 guys minutewise): Jordan, Pippen, Horace Grant, John Paxson, Bill Cartwright, Cliff Levingston, Scott Williams, and Craig Hodges

Wow! Cartwright and Paxson!!! Look at that bench too!!! Grant was a very good defensive player, but great is far too strong--he never made a single all-star team.

Getting minutes on the second three-peat was Ron Harper, Luc Longley, Bill Wennington, and Randy Brown. Surrounded.

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The only player in the modern era to do it without any great players around him was Hakeem Olajuwon in 93-94

That team's rotation was Olajuwon, Robert Horry, Vernon Maxwell, Otis Thorpe, Kenny Smith, Sam Cassell, Carl Herrera

Cassell was a rookie and Horry was in just his 2nd year

The next year when the Rockets won their 2nd title they had to go through:

The Western Conferences top 3 seeds: Utah (Malone, Stockton); Phoenix (Barkley, Kevin Johnson, Dan Majerle, Danny Manning); San Antonio (Robinson)

And Orlando - the East's top seed who had Shaq, Penny, and Horace Grant

All Olajuwon did was put up this line in the playoffs:

33 pts 10 rbs 4.5 assts 2.9 blks 1.1 stls

Result: Dream > LeBron

Not saying it really. I'm just putting it out there.

Charles Barkley on LeBron

"He'll never be Jordan," Barkley told 790 the Ticket in Miami earlier in the week. "This clearly takes him out of the conversation. He can win as much as he wants to.

"There would have been something honorable about staying in Cleveland and trying to win it as 'The Man' ... LeBron, if he would've in Cleveland, and if he could've got a championship there, it would have been over the top for his legacy, just one in Cleveland. No matter how many he wins in Miami, it clearly is Dwyane Wade's team."

Pulling my hair out - Woody Paige

Asked about Cavs owner Dan Gilbert Paige said the following:

If he wanted to keep Lebron he should have spent more money. And he should have signed him to a 10 or 12 year contract to make sure this would not happen.

How can you be a sports writer/commentator and be this dumb?

#1 Only two teams (Lakers, Mavs) spent more money than Gilbert.

#2a Contracts in excess of 6 years are not possible under the current CBA.
#2b He cannot just sign Lebron to an extension. Lebron would of had to agree, something he clearly was not interested in doing.

Woody Paige, we are all dumber for having heard what you said. I award you no points and may God have mercy on your soul.

Breaking down the Miami Big 3 and pumping the brakes on the expectations

Here are the scouting reports for James and Wade:

It's easier said than done, but getting Player A to shoot a jump shot is 90 percent of the battle. Player A tried nearly half his shots in the basket area and made 64.1 percent of them, in addition to the profusion of fouls he drew. As a jump shooter, however, he's ordinary: Player A hit 41.7 percent of his long 2s and only 31.7 percent of his 3s.

Player B devastates opponents with his penetration from the top of the key…Getting him to shoot jumpers is the game within a game, because he isn't terribly accurate from outside. But he's good enough that opponents need to make an effort to challenge his jumpers, and in the meantime he scores or gets to the line virtually every time he gets in the paint.

Just from reading the individual scouting reports (by John Hollinger of ESPN Insider) you do not know if Player A is Wade or James and the same goes for Player B. Heck, you don’t even know if they aren’t the same player based just on these scouting reports. You can tell though that you would love to have either Player A or Player B on your team.

Where this is going and why I am puzzled by the instantaneous crowning of the Heat as champions should be evident. James and Wade are incredible talents—they are both 10s. However, in this case, 10 + 10 does not = 20. The 10 + 10 = 20 misconception in one almost everyone is falling for and must explain the Heat's rise in Vegas to almost overwhelming title favorites. It is a hugely important point that save for a few (John Barry) is being largely overlooked. The thing that makes James and Wade most devastating is the same—their almost incomparable ability to penetrate and either finish or draw a foul (at times, seemingly at will). The problem is that there is only one ball and thus the Heat benefit less than people realize from having two players with this particular skill, as impressive as it is. For all the Cavs failings, what the team was missing was not a second player that duplicated James’ best skill. Next season, when Wade does what he does best—drive to the basket—the king will be standing behind the three point line watching. If Wade is doubled then he could kick it out to James who could shoot a 3, something he is no more than average at. The compliment to a penetrator is a deadly outside shooter (or a team of them) to space the floor and dare the opposition to help on the drive. The natural compliment is not another penetrator.

Let's put this very important point in terms of "usage rate". Usage rate shows what percentage of a team's offensive possession a player "uses" (shot, gets fouled, turnover). Last year, Wade was #1 in the NBA in usage rate and LeBron was #2. Their respective teams benefited greatly from having such high efficiency players dominate their offenses. Together with the Heat though, for every possession Wade uses, that is one that LeBron does not and vice versa. Basically, LeBron was much more valuable to the Cavs offense last season than he will be to the Heat offense this year and the same goes for Wade. Again, it is certainly great to have both of these guys, but 10+10 does not = 20.

Bosh of course is a strong compliment to either Wade or LeBron and arguably, the more significant compliment (Dirk would have been perfect). To be clear, I am not saying that the Heat are worse off having both Wade and LeBron or that the combination will be a disaster. It certainly will have its benefits as neither will be required to carry the same load night in and night out and if either is having an off night, the other can take a more prominent role and pick up the slack. I have heard some say that not having to shoulder such a load will allow Wade and LeBron to be fresher come playoff time, but the opposite is just as likely to be the case. With such a lack of depth, each will have to log as heavy a minute load as ever. As my final qualification, I do think that this team will be a contender in the East right away. That however, falls far short of a 7-5 title favorite. They are almost even money for goodness sakes! It is not clear to me why this team is even favored much less heavily favored over the Lakers (7-2) or the Magic for that matter all the way down at 9-1 (who on MIA is going to check Dwight Howard?). If I had to bet $100 or lose it, I would put it the Thunder (14-1) or Dallas or San Antonio (both 25-1) before I would bet on Miami with its potential $40 payout. It’s just a bad bet.

Debunking Some Talking Head Myths

I have heard a handful of statements supporting the Heat’s place as title favorites that I take issue with.

#1 – “People said just three guys could not work when Boston did it and they were wrong then.”

Well, as it turns out, the Big Three in Boston was actually more than 3. They had a young PG named Rajon Rondo who was in the early stages of becoming one of the premiere PGs in the league. They had a rugged young big man in Kendrick Perkins who rebounded the ball and played solid post defense against the oppositions toughest bigs. Then they had a 6th man who was their secret weapon off the bench in James Posey who shot 40% from the outside and played stellar defense. It was a natural team with players in defined roles at each position (much more so than the Heat). It played tremendous defense with KG being the defensive player of the year, Rondo one of the best in the business and Posey. These are things the Heat simply do not have (yet).

#2 – “Other players will wait in line to take the minimum to come play with these guys.”

There are two major issues undermining this statement. First, evidence is everywhere of NBA players being bankrupt within a few short years of leaving the league. As crazy as it sounds, the way these players spend and manage their money, many of them actually need to make money at a certain level. Important in its own right, but particularly so in light of the preceding point is the impending labor situation after the upcoming season. All signs point to an owner lockout that will not end until the players have been sufficiently rolled. Now is not the time for players to take a pay cut. For many, this might be their last good chance to “get theirs”.

Concluding Thought

My Heat prognosis: They will win a title – maybe two. However, they probably won’t win one this first year and even if they did, which I doubt they will, there is not enough solid reasoning to make them a better than 2 to 1 favorite. Going into 2011-2012 there will likely be a more compelling argument since they will have been able to use their mid-level exception to bring in another really solid piece (preferably a good defensive big that rebounds).

There is a major risk to all of my analysis. That is, that because we have never seen a team like this that all of my reasoning above, based on traditional basketball principles, could be inapplicable. If any team could rewrite the rules, it would be this one. However, until I see it—I won’t believe it.

I am going to pull my hair out if I have to listen to Dan Le Batard anymore

Le Batard continues to compare the Miami big 3 to what Boston did.

He argued with Bill Simmons that it is the same exact situation--that people said "oh this Celtics team only has three guys...it can't work" but it did work says Le Batard.

He went on to say that "the Heat are going to be fine because someone on their team, one of the other guys, is going to turn into a Rondo"

Really? Top 5 PGs who play ridiculous defense grow on trees? That statement alone costs him his credibility.

Celtics had Perkins to play post defense and Posey playing great defense and hitting 3's off the bench.

It is significantly different and I am tired of hearing people make that comparison.

Le Batard went further to say "even if say Wade went out for the year, with LeBron and Bosh the Heat would still be the favorite in the East".

What??? A two person team with 10 nobodies, no PG and no C?

This is homerism at its peak.

I will have more on the Heat later.