NFC Playoff Teams:
Giants, Eagles, Packers, Saints, Falcons, Seattle
AFC Playoff Teams:
Patriots, Jets, Steelers, Ravens, Colts, Chiefs
qe2
15 years ago
Wednesday, November 3, 2010
Monday, October 18, 2010
Colin Cowherd is awful again
Statement: "Bill Belichick is 8-0 after bye weeks"
Fact: This doesn't even pass the smell test because this is his 11th season as Patriots head coach thus his 11th game after a bye week. He lost after a bye week in 2000 and 2002. Therefore, he is 9-2 after bye weeks--still impressive, but not undefeated as Cowherd's words would suggest.
Statement: "Aaron Rogers is 7-13 in games decided by 7 points or less, but he is great in blowouts. He is not clutch."
Analysis: Let's think about the logic of this statement. Isn't it more likely the case that the games are close because his numbers are bad (in those games) than his numbers are bad because the games are close. Similarly, isnt it likely that the blowouts are blowouts because his numbers are good and not the other way around. That is, the game will usually be closer when the quarterback plays worse whereas if he has an awesome game chances are his team wins by more than 7 points.
Last week Cowherd takes full credit for seeing the Moss trade coming and spends 5 minutes replaying the soundbite and taking credit for it. On Friday Cowherd spent 5 minutes detailing how and why Nebraska is going to kill Texas and predicts a 41-17 beatdown. When recapping the weekends games, that game is not mentioned once.
Fact: This doesn't even pass the smell test because this is his 11th season as Patriots head coach thus his 11th game after a bye week. He lost after a bye week in 2000 and 2002. Therefore, he is 9-2 after bye weeks--still impressive, but not undefeated as Cowherd's words would suggest.
Statement: "Aaron Rogers is 7-13 in games decided by 7 points or less, but he is great in blowouts. He is not clutch."
Analysis: Let's think about the logic of this statement. Isn't it more likely the case that the games are close because his numbers are bad (in those games) than his numbers are bad because the games are close. Similarly, isnt it likely that the blowouts are blowouts because his numbers are good and not the other way around. That is, the game will usually be closer when the quarterback plays worse whereas if he has an awesome game chances are his team wins by more than 7 points.
Last week Cowherd takes full credit for seeing the Moss trade coming and spends 5 minutes replaying the soundbite and taking credit for it. On Friday Cowherd spent 5 minutes detailing how and why Nebraska is going to kill Texas and predicts a 41-17 beatdown. When recapping the weekends games, that game is not mentioned once.
Thursday, September 30, 2010
NBA Mega Trade
New Jersey gets:
SF Carmelo Anthony
PG Chris Paul
C Emeka Okafor
Denver gets:
PF Derrick Favors
SF Damion James
PF Troy Murphy
NJ's 2013 and 2015 1st rd. pick
New Orleans gets:
C Brook Lopez
PG Devin Harris
PF Kris Humphries
NJ's 2011 1st rd. pick
Washington gets:
G/F Terrence Williams
SF Quinton Ross
$3 mil cash
2nd rd. pick
Analysis:
New Jersey:
The Nets get there dynamic duo. In Paul and Anthony the Nets get 2 of the 10 best players in league. The franchise now has two young stars in their primes as they gear up for the eventual move to Brooklyn. This move does completely deplete the depth of the team and creates a gigantic hole at PF where NJ will likely be forced to start well past his prime Joe Smith this season before being able to add someone via the MLE next offseason.
Denver:
In return for Anthony who is almost certain to leave after this season, Denver gets Favors, the 3rd overall pick in this year's draft. Favors is raw, but has All-Pro potential. James, the 24th pick in this past years draft, is an athletic forward who can swing between the 3 and the 4. The addition of these two officially begins the Denver rebuilding process and it does so with a bang. Finally, Murphy, who is still a quality player, should net Denver even more assets at the trade deadline on account of not just his playing ability, but because of his $12 mil expiring contract. Financially, Denver goes from $15 million over the luxury tax threshold in 10-11 to $11 mil under the salary cap (before draft picks) next offseason. The cap space and rebuilding assets could be even greater if Denver chooses to shop Chauncey Billups. Denver also gets two future 1st rd. pick from NJ.
New Orleans:
This deal forces the Hornets to part with the best PG in basketball and the face of their franchise. However, it might be a move they have to make given Paul's apparent desire to leave once his current deal expires. This trade gets the Hornets two young pieces including a 23 year old all-star center. Moreover, it gets NO out from under Okafor's burdensome contract. Additionally, NJ's 2011 first round pick could also turn out to be a decent asset as the Nets are forced to deplete their roster in this deal. Finally, but perhaps most importantly, after this trade New Orleans will go into next offseason approximately $31 million under the cap (this assumed David West does not exercise his $7 mil player option, which he wont). Therefore, they will have more cap space than any other team.
Washington:
Washington essentially just gets paid to make this trade work under the cap.
Post-trade lineups:
New Orleans:
C Brook Lopez
PF David West
SF Trevor Ariza
SG Marcus Thornton
PG Devin Harris
New Jersey:
C Emeka Okafor
PF Joe Smith
SF Carmelo Anthony
SG Anthony Morrow
PG Chris Paul
Denver:
C Nene
PF Troy Murphy
SF Damion James
SG J.R. Smith
PG Chauncey Billups
SF Carmelo Anthony
PG Chris Paul
C Emeka Okafor
Denver gets:
PF Derrick Favors
SF Damion James
PF Troy Murphy
NJ's 2013 and 2015 1st rd. pick
New Orleans gets:
C Brook Lopez
PG Devin Harris
PF Kris Humphries
NJ's 2011 1st rd. pick
Washington gets:
G/F Terrence Williams
SF Quinton Ross
$3 mil cash
2nd rd. pick
Analysis:
New Jersey:
The Nets get there dynamic duo. In Paul and Anthony the Nets get 2 of the 10 best players in league. The franchise now has two young stars in their primes as they gear up for the eventual move to Brooklyn. This move does completely deplete the depth of the team and creates a gigantic hole at PF where NJ will likely be forced to start well past his prime Joe Smith this season before being able to add someone via the MLE next offseason.
Denver:
In return for Anthony who is almost certain to leave after this season, Denver gets Favors, the 3rd overall pick in this year's draft. Favors is raw, but has All-Pro potential. James, the 24th pick in this past years draft, is an athletic forward who can swing between the 3 and the 4. The addition of these two officially begins the Denver rebuilding process and it does so with a bang. Finally, Murphy, who is still a quality player, should net Denver even more assets at the trade deadline on account of not just his playing ability, but because of his $12 mil expiring contract. Financially, Denver goes from $15 million over the luxury tax threshold in 10-11 to $11 mil under the salary cap (before draft picks) next offseason. The cap space and rebuilding assets could be even greater if Denver chooses to shop Chauncey Billups. Denver also gets two future 1st rd. pick from NJ.
New Orleans:
This deal forces the Hornets to part with the best PG in basketball and the face of their franchise. However, it might be a move they have to make given Paul's apparent desire to leave once his current deal expires. This trade gets the Hornets two young pieces including a 23 year old all-star center. Moreover, it gets NO out from under Okafor's burdensome contract. Additionally, NJ's 2011 first round pick could also turn out to be a decent asset as the Nets are forced to deplete their roster in this deal. Finally, but perhaps most importantly, after this trade New Orleans will go into next offseason approximately $31 million under the cap (this assumed David West does not exercise his $7 mil player option, which he wont). Therefore, they will have more cap space than any other team.
Washington:
Washington essentially just gets paid to make this trade work under the cap.
Post-trade lineups:
New Orleans:
C Brook Lopez
PF David West
SF Trevor Ariza
SG Marcus Thornton
PG Devin Harris
New Jersey:
C Emeka Okafor
PF Joe Smith
SF Carmelo Anthony
SG Anthony Morrow
PG Chris Paul
Denver:
C Nene
PF Troy Murphy
SF Damion James
SG J.R. Smith
PG Chauncey Billups
Wednesday, September 29, 2010
AL Cy Young - Welcome to the 21st Century
On PTI Wilbon and Kornheiser said they would not give the Cy Young to Seattle's Felix Hernandez because he hasn't won enough games.
Hernandez leads the league in ERA, Ks, and IP. But he only has a 13-12 record. (Before moving on consider that the rest of the Seattle pitching staff is a combined 48-84).
Wilbon calls WHIP and Sabermetrics "junk" and says you still have to win the games.
Funny thing is your offense has to score runs for you to win. You cannot get wins unless your team scores runs and a pitcher, especially in the AL has no control over that.
Wilbon instead said Sabathia should probably get it because he has 21 wins. Well, the Yankees have scored an average of 5.61 runs per game in Sabathia's 34 starts.
In Hernandez's 12 losses, the Mariner's scored a combined 14 runs or 1.17 runs per game. Overall, the Mariner's scored 2.97 runs per game in Hernadez's 34 starts.
That is a 2.64 run per game difference.
Wins are a relatively unreliable indicator of pitching performance at least relative to other available measures like WHIP.
In 2003 Jeriome Robertson went 15-9 for the Astros. That is a better record than Hernandez has. That year Robertson's ERA was 5.10, his WHIP was 1.51 and he walked almost as many batters as he struck out. That year though the Astros scored a ton of runs during his starts (5.56).
The win argument makes everyone look dumber. Stop making it.
Added:
Hernandez against the Yankees this season: 3-0, 0.35 ERA (1 run in 26 IP)
Hernandez leads the league in ERA, Ks, and IP. But he only has a 13-12 record. (Before moving on consider that the rest of the Seattle pitching staff is a combined 48-84).
Wilbon calls WHIP and Sabermetrics "junk" and says you still have to win the games.
Funny thing is your offense has to score runs for you to win. You cannot get wins unless your team scores runs and a pitcher, especially in the AL has no control over that.
Wilbon instead said Sabathia should probably get it because he has 21 wins. Well, the Yankees have scored an average of 5.61 runs per game in Sabathia's 34 starts.
In Hernandez's 12 losses, the Mariner's scored a combined 14 runs or 1.17 runs per game. Overall, the Mariner's scored 2.97 runs per game in Hernadez's 34 starts.
That is a 2.64 run per game difference.
Wins are a relatively unreliable indicator of pitching performance at least relative to other available measures like WHIP.
In 2003 Jeriome Robertson went 15-9 for the Astros. That is a better record than Hernandez has. That year Robertson's ERA was 5.10, his WHIP was 1.51 and he walked almost as many batters as he struck out. That year though the Astros scored a ton of runs during his starts (5.56).
The win argument makes everyone look dumber. Stop making it.
Added:
Hernandez against the Yankees this season: 3-0, 0.35 ERA (1 run in 26 IP)
Monday, September 6, 2010
Childhood Obesity & Pork Politics
Some of you may know that childhood obesity is a topic I am interested in and feel strongly about. This week the Senate passed a bill that will call for "healthier" school lunches as well as what can be sold in school vending machines. (Story in link below).
I have long advocated action in this area and am hopeful that the Agriculture Department will draw appropriate and meaningful guidelines. This is a tricky area as the temptation to be overly paternalistic is an easy one and one that often gets the best of me.
Furthermore, what this move controls is only the food American students have access to for one meal a day. A breakfast featuring sugar loaded cereal (making students prone to crash in the morning and reduce focus and performance in the classroom) joined with some sugary drinks after school and a less than healthy dinner makes these lunchtime changes almost trivial.
Again, this is a move in the right direction, but it is a culture shift we need not just a dietary adjustment.
The disconcerning political part of all of this comes at the bottom of the story.
I don't know whether cutting subsidies to farmers or reducing food stamp benefits is the more prudent way to fund this legislation, but it just jumps out at me how these games are played.
The new nutrition standards would not remove popular foods like pizzas from schools completely, but would make them healthier, using whole-wheat crust or low-fat mozzarella, for example. Vending machines could be stocked with less candy and fewer high-calorie sodas.
Decisions on what kinds of foods will be sold — and what ingredients may be limited — would be left up to the Agriculture Department.
I have long advocated action in this area and am hopeful that the Agriculture Department will draw appropriate and meaningful guidelines. This is a tricky area as the temptation to be overly paternalistic is an easy one and one that often gets the best of me.
Furthermore, what this move controls is only the food American students have access to for one meal a day. A breakfast featuring sugar loaded cereal (making students prone to crash in the morning and reduce focus and performance in the classroom) joined with some sugary drinks after school and a less than healthy dinner makes these lunchtime changes almost trivial.
Again, this is a move in the right direction, but it is a culture shift we need not just a dietary adjustment.
The disconcerning political part of all of this comes at the bottom of the story.
Part of the deal to move the legislation this week was to change the way it was paid for. While the committee bill partially paid for the legislation by reducing conservation subsidies paid to farmers for using environmentally friendly farming practices, the Senate-passed bill took $2.2 billion out of future funding for food stamp programs instead after some farm-state senators objected to using the subsidy money.
Hunger advocates who had previously supported the bill said they would now oppose it.
I don't know whether cutting subsidies to farmers or reducing food stamp benefits is the more prudent way to fund this legislation, but it just jumps out at me how these games are played.
Tuesday, August 24, 2010
NFL Over/Under Picks
Here are my season picks for NFL team wins from the current Vegas lines:
Denver 7.5 -- Under
Dallas 10 -- Over
Patriots 9.5 -- Over
Steelers 8.5 -- Under
Rams 5 -- Under
Redskins 7.5 -- Under
Seahawks 7.5 -- Under
Denver 7.5 -- Under
Dallas 10 -- Over
Patriots 9.5 -- Over
Steelers 8.5 -- Under
Rams 5 -- Under
Redskins 7.5 -- Under
Seahawks 7.5 -- Under
Friday, August 6, 2010
NBA FUTURE POWER RANKINGS
This is my take on an ESPN NBA Feature that ranks all 30 NBA Teams in 5 categories in an effort to rank their relative strength going forward for the 2011-2012, 2012-2013, and 2013-2014 seasons.
The categories are: Players, Management, Money, Market, Draft
Players: Current players and their potential for the future, factoring in expected departures
Management: Quality and stability of front office, ownership, coaching
Money: Projected salary-cap situation; ability and willingness to exceed cap and pay luxury tax
Market: Appeal to future acquisitions based on team quality, franchise reputation, city's desirability as a destination, market size, taxes, business and entertainment opportunities, arena quality, fans
Draft: Future draft picks; draft positioning
Points are assigned for each category: Players 0-400; Management and Money 0-200 each; Draft 0-150; Market 0-100
After assigning values to each the results I came up with fell into fairly clear tiers.
TIER ONE
Miami Heat
Oklahoma City Thunder
TIER TWO
LA Lakers
Chicago Bulls
Houston Rockets
Orlando Magic
Portland Trailblazers
TIER THREE
Utah Jazz
Denver Nuggets
TIER FOUR
San Antonio Spurs
Boston Celtics
Dallas Mavericks
TIER FIVE
LA Clippers
Sacramento Kings
New York Knicks
Washington Wizards
Atlanta Hawks
Milwaukee Bucks
New Jersey Nets
Indiana Pacers
TIER SIX
Memphis Grizzlies
Detroit Pistons
Phoenix Suns
New Orleans Hornets
Toronto Raptors
Golden State Warriors
TIER SEVEN
Minnesota Timberwolves
Cleveland Cavaliers
Charlotte Bobcats
The categories are: Players, Management, Money, Market, Draft
Players: Current players and their potential for the future, factoring in expected departures
Management: Quality and stability of front office, ownership, coaching
Money: Projected salary-cap situation; ability and willingness to exceed cap and pay luxury tax
Market: Appeal to future acquisitions based on team quality, franchise reputation, city's desirability as a destination, market size, taxes, business and entertainment opportunities, arena quality, fans
Draft: Future draft picks; draft positioning
Points are assigned for each category: Players 0-400; Management and Money 0-200 each; Draft 0-150; Market 0-100
After assigning values to each the results I came up with fell into fairly clear tiers.
TIER ONE
Miami Heat
Oklahoma City Thunder
TIER TWO
LA Lakers
Chicago Bulls
Houston Rockets
Orlando Magic
Portland Trailblazers
TIER THREE
Utah Jazz
Denver Nuggets
TIER FOUR
San Antonio Spurs
Boston Celtics
Dallas Mavericks
TIER FIVE
LA Clippers
Sacramento Kings
New York Knicks
Washington Wizards
Atlanta Hawks
Milwaukee Bucks
New Jersey Nets
Indiana Pacers
TIER SIX
Memphis Grizzlies
Detroit Pistons
Phoenix Suns
New Orleans Hornets
Toronto Raptors
Golden State Warriors
TIER SEVEN
Minnesota Timberwolves
Cleveland Cavaliers
Charlotte Bobcats
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