Wednesday, September 29, 2010

AL Cy Young - Welcome to the 21st Century

On PTI Wilbon and Kornheiser said they would not give the Cy Young to Seattle's Felix Hernandez because he hasn't won enough games.

Hernandez leads the league in ERA, Ks, and IP. But he only has a 13-12 record. (Before moving on consider that the rest of the Seattle pitching staff is a combined 48-84).

Wilbon calls WHIP and Sabermetrics "junk" and says you still have to win the games.

Funny thing is your offense has to score runs for you to win. You cannot get wins unless your team scores runs and a pitcher, especially in the AL has no control over that.

Wilbon instead said Sabathia should probably get it because he has 21 wins. Well, the Yankees have scored an average of 5.61 runs per game in Sabathia's 34 starts.

In Hernandez's 12 losses, the Mariner's scored a combined 14 runs or 1.17 runs per game. Overall, the Mariner's scored 2.97 runs per game in Hernadez's 34 starts.

That is a 2.64 run per game difference.

Wins are a relatively unreliable indicator of pitching performance at least relative to other available measures like WHIP.

In 2003 Jeriome Robertson went 15-9 for the Astros. That is a better record than Hernandez has. That year Robertson's ERA was 5.10, his WHIP was 1.51 and he walked almost as many batters as he struck out. That year though the Astros scored a ton of runs during his starts (5.56).

The win argument makes everyone look dumber. Stop making it.

Added:

Hernandez against the Yankees this season: 3-0, 0.35 ERA (1 run in 26 IP)

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