Why I can grade the draft and more recap:

I will ignore the repeated cries that you cannot grade a draft the day after it happens because you can. I dont know which of the first round picks will inevitably be a bust, but that does not stop you from analyzing the value teams got for their draft picks. Draft picks are like currency and prospects are the commodities teams invest in with that currency. So if D. Heyward Bey ends up being a pro-bowler that does not completely undermine those that criticise the Raiders for taking him 7th because he was a $20 commodity the Raiders paid $35 for. So if he turns out to be worth $40, the Raiders made a good pick and made $5, but if they had traded back and taken him at say #12 ($25) they would have made $15. The numbers are arbitrary, but the analogy makes sense. Players have almost an expected value that like a stock is determined by the aggregate opinion of market participants (drafting teams) and so just like you do not want to overpay for a security you do not want to reach for a draft pick. Of course one might ask about team need and how need surely affects value and it certainly does. Therefore, w/in a small band a player maybe more valuable to a team in need of that style/position player than another team and thus it may make sense to take him slightly higher than his aggregated value. This is similar to how buying a particular stock may be more or less advantageous to different investors based on the composition of the rest of their portfolio (diversification effect).

Now that that is done with I will proceed to the meat of this post: Why the Eagles had the best draft of any team and it is really not even arguable (some might say the Bears bc they added a mid-20s pro-bowl QB, but his value must be split between this years draft and next since they gave up firsts in each so they fall out of contention for this title).

Team Needs Leading up to Draft: LT, RB, TE, S, CB, #1WR?

Draft:
#19 - WR Jeremy Maclin - Maclin was the #1 WR in this draft on the board's of 18 teams. Possessing good size and excellent speed and quickness, Maclin is simply a playmaker. Though his route-running needs refinement, he has all the ability to in time emerge as a true #1 WR. Getting Maclin at #19 represents arguably the best value pick of the first round.

#28 - LT Jason Peters - acquired in a trade w/ Buffalo - instead of using this pick on an unproven rookie, the Eagles were able to go out and secure a 27 yr old 2-time pro-bowl LT to man the most important spot on the line. The financial cost was very high, but that is the going rate for all-pro LTs.

#53 - RB LeSean McCoy - perhaps no back in this draft was a better fit for the Eagles system than McCoy. McCoy is in many ways similar to current pro-bowl Eagle RB Brian Westbrook. W/ excellent vision, lateral quickness, burst and above all an excellent feel for the passing game McCoy is a natural complement and eventual successor for Westbrook. Additionally, his selection at #53 represents another tremendous value as he was almost across the board viewed at least a top 45 player.

#153 - TE Cornelius Ingram - Value, value value. Rated the #44 player in the draft by ESPN's Scouts Inc., Ingram is a difference maker in the passing game from the TE position. Having only played the position for two years of college ball Ingram has as much upside at the position as perhaps any player in the draft. Though he still must fully recover from knee surgery and improve his blocking, Ingram should be the Eagles starting TE by 2010.

#157 - CB/S Victor "Macho Harris - Value again. The #113 ranked player in the draft, Harris was 1st-team All-ACC in 2007 and 2008. A physical and instinctive CB in college Harris' biggest weakness is pure speed which is why he profiles as a S for the Eagles. Playing S will allow Harris to maximize his elite ball skills.

CB Ellis Hobbs - acquired for the low price of two 5th round picks, the 25 yr old Hobbs is reunited w/ former teamate Asante Samuel. While not a pro-bowler, Hobbs is a legitimate #2 starting CB who would see significant playing time for any team in the league. Coming off somewhat of a down season (he did not blossom into the pro-bowl player the Patriots thought he would when Samuel departed) he will be highly motivated to perform as he enters the final year of this contract. In a league where you can never have too many good CBs, Hobbs provides even more protection for the Eagles as they deal w/ disgruntled CB Sheldon Brown

Additionally, through draft day maneuvering, the Eagles procured additional 3rd, 5th, and 6th round picks in next years draft.

Finally, the Eagles added a bunch of Samoans in the late rounds of the draft. As far as I am concerned there is no downside to this strategy. If they pan out great, if not they will at the least lighten the mood in training camp and perhaps share some cool Samoan dances the players inevitably will love.

So in conclusion, value throughout and they essentially met every team need while adding valuable picks in next years draft.

1st Round Recap

Picks I Really Liked:
- DT BJ Raji #9 to GB
- WR Michael Crabtree #10 to SF
- DE Brian Orakpo #13 to Wash
- DB Malcolm Jenkins #14 to NO
- TE Brandon Pettigrew #20 to DET
- OT Michael Oher #23 to BAL
- DT Peria Jerry #24 to ATL
- RB Chris Wells #31 to ARZ

Picks I really did not like:
- WR Darius Heyward-Bey #7 to OAK
- OLB Brian Cushing #15 to HOU
- OLB Clay Matthews #26 to GB (just gave up to much to move up and get him)
- DE/OLB Larry English #16 to SD

Live 1st Round Draft Analysis

1) Detroit - QB Matthew Stafford
Ananlysis: Do I like the pick? Not really, but the Lions were in a tough spot. The big issue here is the ridiculous contract. Also, I wonder how the fans at the draft decide how to cheer for random teams/players as Stafford's announcement was met with a chorus of boos.

2) St. Louis - OT Jason Smith
Analysis: This pick likely came down to Smith and Sanchez and they took the OT. I think it was the right move. Smith is super-athletic (caught 6 passes for 70 yds and a TD as a freshmen TE) and fills a gaping whole. Sanchez would have been a good pick, Smith is the better pick.

3) Kansas City - DE Tyson Jackson
Analysis: Jackson is the best 3-4 end in this draft, though his overall grade might not justify this spot. He definitely fills a need and might portend a trade of last years 1st round pick Glenn Dorsey (to Atlanta?) who is not a good fit in the Chiefs new scheme. Aaron Curry is a great prospect, but generally you dont make this type of financial commitment to a 3-4 ILB.

4) Seattle - LB Aaron Curry
Analysis: The trade of Julian Peterson clearly opened the door for Seattle to take who many had as the top overall player in the draft. Sanchez and Monroe would have been understandable picks, but Curry helps most in 2009 and Seattle thinks if healthy they can win their division this year.

5) New York Jets from Cle - QB Mark Sanchez
Analysis: I felt all along the Jets would move up if Sanchez dropped past the top few picks and they did. Talent-wise Sanchez presents a clear upgrade and promise for the future at the most important position on the field. I thought the Jets would have to give up much more to make this move, but Mangini as most coaches do (over)value players they are familiar with.

6) Cincinnati - OT Andre Smith
Analysis: Bengals had 3 great options here with Smith, Monroe, and Raji. Certain teams had serious questions about Monroe's health and the Bengals might have been one of those teams. This pick fills a big hole and makes alot of sense.

7) Oakland - WR Darius Heyward-Bey
Analysis: Wow. This had been rumored based on Al Davis' love of speed, but I just did not believe it. Heyward-Bey is at this point clearly a better athlete than WR and Oakland probably could have traded down and still got him. Personally, if speed is what they were after, I think Jeremy Maclin provides similar speed with superior hands, shiftiness, and route-running skills.

8) Jacksonville - OT Eugene Monroe
Analysis: OL has been a problem for Jacksonville the last few seasons and Monroe provides a longterm infusion of talent. Crabtree, Maclin, and Raji all would have been fine picks. Assuming his health is not an issue, Monroe is a fine pick though Crabtree and Raji are probably better players.

9) Green Bay - NT B.J. Raji
Analysis: This is the absolute right pick. A great nose tackle is the key to good 3-4 defense and Raji has a chance to man that difficult position to fill as GB makes their schematic switch. This pick was a no-brainer and was an excellent match of need and value.

10) San Francisco - WR Michael Crabtree
Analysis: No-brainer. SF has not had a #1 WR since T.O. and that was a long time ago. Crabtree will open up the entire offense and benefit whoever is playing QB. Great pick considering value and need.

11) Buffalo - DE Aaron Maybin
Analysis: It was pretty clear the Bills were going to go DE with this pick and the question was Maybin or Orakpo. I might have gone Orakpo, but do not have a real problem with the pick as Maybin is raw, but has the pure ability to get after the QB.

12) Denver - RB Knowshon Moreno
Analysis: Denver had Tyson Jackson and BJ Raji on top of their board and once they were gone the offensive head coach Josh McDaniels made this call to take the best RB in the draft. Surprised it happened at 12 and not 18. Also, Denver added some RBs in FA, but none have the talent of Moreno.

13) Washington - DE Brian Orakpo
Analysis: Another no-brainer. Orakpo will be an excellent addition to the Redskin defense and fills a huge need. Playing next to Haynesworth will only make life easier for Orakpo and harder for opposing offenses. Great pick.

14) New Orleans - DB Malcom Williams
Analysis: Great pick. Makes alot of sense. The back seven needed an infusion of talent and Williams provides that, likely at FS.

15) Houston - OLB Brian Cushing
Analysis: I hate this pick. Safety was a bigger need and WR Jeremy Maclin was a better value. I would have taken Maclin or traded back and looked for Clay Matthews or S Louis Delmas. I have major concerns about Cushing both in terms of durability and upside. Many believe his frame is maxed out. As a Texans fan I am very dissappointed.

16) San Diego - DE/OLB Larry English
Analysis: I really thought SD not having a second round pick would trade down out of this spot even if not for full value. English carried a legit late first round grade and provides insurance for Merriman's recovery. I think OT M. Oher would have been a better value and filled a more immediate need.

17) Tampa Bay from Cleveland - QB Josh Freeman
Analysis: TB has been linked to Freeman for months so this is not a shocker. Freeman has alot of growing and learning to do so patience will be the key for him. He has the physical tools, but more or less everything else is the question. Bust potential here and perhaps a reach, but if a team has a conviction on a QB that you might not have a chance at later then it is probably a reasonable pick.

18) Denver - DE Robert Ayers
Analysis: Ayers has the size to come in and play end in Denver's new 3-4 scheme. This pick represents good value and fills a team need.

19) Philly from Cleveland - WR Jeremy Maclin
Analysis: I am sort of conflicted with this pick. It represents a tremendous value, but I do have questions about whether it might not have been better to trade the pick for a Braylon Edwards or Anquan Boldin. Also, Pettigrew would have been a good choice as well though there should be TE options available in round 2. Back to Maclin, he is a fantastic talent that needs to refine his route-running, but has the tools to be a pro-bowl caliber WR. He was the #11 player in the entire draft according to ESPN's Scouts Inc and #10 on Mel Kiper's big board.

20) Detroit - TE Brandon Pettigrew
Analysis: The Lions had some very good options in Pettigrew, Oher, and Jerry. Pettigrew is a very good pick that provides great value and fills a need. This pick will really benefit #1 pick M. Stafford.

21) Cleveland from Philly - C Alex Mack
Analysis: I thought this would be a rush LB such as Everette Brown, but Mack was the top rated C in the draft and will provide a boost to Clevelands OL. A reasonable pick.

22) Minnesota - WR Percy Harvin
Analysis: Despite all of his red flags, Harvin has been linked to Minnesota and provides a potential playmaker that could free room for Adrian Peterson to operate. The Vikings could have used an OL such as M. Oher or Ebon Britton, but chose to take a chance on one of the drafts most explosive players.

23) Baltimore from NE - OT Michael Oher
Analysis: Great pick. Tremendous value and is an upgrade for Baltimore's o-line that must go up against the Steelers defense twice a season. There are questions about Oher and he is far from a sure thing, but the talent is here and at pick #23 the price is right in terms of value and money.

24) Atlanta - DT Peria Jerry
Analysis: Jerry has been linked to the Falcons for some time as DT was a glaring hole. At this spot in the draft he presents good value and fills a need. I like this pick.

25) Miami - CB Vontae Davis
Analysis: CB and WR were the Dolphin's biggest needs and they get perhaps the best pure corner in the draft in Davis. There are issues about his mental approach to the game (much like his brother Vernon), but he has the size and all of the physical tools (again like his brother) to be an elite corner. Good value, good pick.

26) Green Bay from NE - Clay Matthews OLB
Analysis: A bit of a surprise pick with an OT like Ebon Britton and a rush LB Everette Brown on the board, but he does project as a good fit as a 3-4 OLB. An ok pick depending on what they had to give up to get this high.

27) Indy - RB Donald Brown
Analysis: I did not see this pick coming at all. I figured Indy to address DT (Z. Hood) or a WR. That said Brown fits Indy's system and should be a good compliment to Joseph Addai. Still not sure if Indy did not have bigger needs.

28) Buffalo - C Eric Wood
Analysis: The #2 rated center in the draft that carried a legit high 2nd round grade will provide a big upgrade to Buffalo's o-line. Ok value and fills a need. An ok pick.

29) NY Giants - WR Hakeem Nicks
Analysis: Everyone knew this was almost a lock to be a WR and the only question was which one. Nicks and Kenny Britt were the highest rated WRs left on the board and Nicks is a good selection. He has only marginal speed, but he is physical, has good hands, and can contribute quite quickly. Good value and fills a hole = good pick.

30) Tenn Titans - WR Kenny Britt
Analysis: The Titans have needed WR help for some time and Nate Washington is not the total answer to their problem. Britt figured to go about this spot in the draft and fits in well with the Titans both in terms of need and value.

31) Arizona - RB Chris "Beanie" Wells
Analysis: This was likely to be a RB all along and despite durability concerns, Wells is a great talent and a fantastic value at this point in the draft. Very good pick.

32) Pitt Steelers - DL Evander Hood
Analysis: Classic Steelers pick. Hood is a good versatile player that can slide along the Steelers line providing great youth and depth. Reasonable pick.

2009 NFL Mock Draft

Any mock draft made before the draft in incredibly difficult because of the inevitable flurry of trade activity that shakes up the draft. Also, there is the inherent struggle in choosing to mock what teams should do as opposed to what they will do. The above mock is based primarily on what teams will do. This differs significantly from what I think teams should do (which often involves trades so that teams recognize appropriate value and not just meet team need).

The Bias of the SAT

"The overall SAT results were broken into 10 family-income blocks, beginning at less than $10,000. They increase in $10,000 increments to students with family income levels greater than $100,000. Students from families with less than a $10,000 income scored a mean of 429 in critical reading, which improved to 445 in the $10,000 to $20,000 income range. That score jumped in each of the next eight income groups, peaking at 549 with students from families earning more than $100,000. The same trend occurred in math: Students at the lowest-end income level had a mean score of 457, which crept to 465, 474, 488, 501 and then 509 in the $50,000-$60,000 range. The numbers kept improving to a mean score of 564 at the $100,000 and above level.
Typically, each $10,000 income increase corresponded to a 10- to 12-point gain in the mean score of each test section. The only significant variation was between students from families earning between $80,000 and $100,000 and those earning more than $100,000. In those categories, mean scores jumped 26, 30 and 29 points, respectively, in critical reading, math and writing.

Those results correlated with the Baltimore-area school district median income numbers. Howard County, with the United States’ third-highest median income, at $91,184, scored higher than Anne Arundel with median income of $71,961, which scored higher than Harford at $65,343. The trend continued down to Baltimore County at $56,295, which scored higher than Baltimore City at $32,456." - http://www.examiner.com/a-254205~SAT_scores_tied_to_income_level_locally__nationally.html?cid=rss-Baltimore






The graph is fairly straightforward and goes represents the core issue, that is that a particular test taker's household income has more predictive value than does his race. The question then becomes what exactly should be done to recognize this phenomenon and correct for it.

A logical starting question is whether or not race and household income (poverty in particular) are so intertwined as to undermine the value of making any distinction in the first place. According to 2007 census numbers approximately 10% of black households earn more than $100,00 per year. Meanwhile, that number is 21.5% for whites, 31% for Asians, and 11% for hispanics. My takeaway from this is that any racially based method of adjusting SAT scores would at the same time be over and under inclusive. It would doubtless provide a great benefit to a large number of minorities, whom are in a very real sense undervalued by such an income sensitive test. However, such a proposal would unjustifiably benefit tens of thousands of minorities that come from households earning more than $100,000. At the same time, a race based adjustment (whether directly or indirectly) would fail to provide a similar benefit to the hundreds of thousands of white and asian students coming from impoverished households.

I briefly take this time to point out that this analysis is equally applicable for most race based programs designed to compensate for the underrepresentation of minorities in colleges. Most of the justifications for such programs are fundamentally flawed. These arguments in support of race based programs mistake correlation for causation. The important reality is not that minorities are underrepresented because they are minorities, but rather minorities are represented because a higher percentage of them come from lower-income households. Therefore, any race based program is inherently not narrowly tailored to achieve an otherwise legitimate and praiseworthy goal.

Without a feasible way to adjust SAT scores for household income (in an imperfect attempt to account for the income bias) I might support the movement of some schools that have moved towards making the SAT optional.

(I disclose that the data does indicate race has some predictive value of SAT score performance apart from household income, but this predictive value is of a much smaller magnitude than income).