Wednesday, April 29, 2009

Why I can grade the draft and more recap:

I will ignore the repeated cries that you cannot grade a draft the day after it happens because you can. I dont know which of the first round picks will inevitably be a bust, but that does not stop you from analyzing the value teams got for their draft picks. Draft picks are like currency and prospects are the commodities teams invest in with that currency. So if D. Heyward Bey ends up being a pro-bowler that does not completely undermine those that criticise the Raiders for taking him 7th because he was a $20 commodity the Raiders paid $35 for. So if he turns out to be worth $40, the Raiders made a good pick and made $5, but if they had traded back and taken him at say #12 ($25) they would have made $15. The numbers are arbitrary, but the analogy makes sense. Players have almost an expected value that like a stock is determined by the aggregate opinion of market participants (drafting teams) and so just like you do not want to overpay for a security you do not want to reach for a draft pick. Of course one might ask about team need and how need surely affects value and it certainly does. Therefore, w/in a small band a player maybe more valuable to a team in need of that style/position player than another team and thus it may make sense to take him slightly higher than his aggregated value. This is similar to how buying a particular stock may be more or less advantageous to different investors based on the composition of the rest of their portfolio (diversification effect).

Now that that is done with I will proceed to the meat of this post: Why the Eagles had the best draft of any team and it is really not even arguable (some might say the Bears bc they added a mid-20s pro-bowl QB, but his value must be split between this years draft and next since they gave up firsts in each so they fall out of contention for this title).

Team Needs Leading up to Draft: LT, RB, TE, S, CB, #1WR?

Draft:
#19 - WR Jeremy Maclin - Maclin was the #1 WR in this draft on the board's of 18 teams. Possessing good size and excellent speed and quickness, Maclin is simply a playmaker. Though his route-running needs refinement, he has all the ability to in time emerge as a true #1 WR. Getting Maclin at #19 represents arguably the best value pick of the first round.

#28 - LT Jason Peters - acquired in a trade w/ Buffalo - instead of using this pick on an unproven rookie, the Eagles were able to go out and secure a 27 yr old 2-time pro-bowl LT to man the most important spot on the line. The financial cost was very high, but that is the going rate for all-pro LTs.

#53 - RB LeSean McCoy - perhaps no back in this draft was a better fit for the Eagles system than McCoy. McCoy is in many ways similar to current pro-bowl Eagle RB Brian Westbrook. W/ excellent vision, lateral quickness, burst and above all an excellent feel for the passing game McCoy is a natural complement and eventual successor for Westbrook. Additionally, his selection at #53 represents another tremendous value as he was almost across the board viewed at least a top 45 player.

#153 - TE Cornelius Ingram - Value, value value. Rated the #44 player in the draft by ESPN's Scouts Inc., Ingram is a difference maker in the passing game from the TE position. Having only played the position for two years of college ball Ingram has as much upside at the position as perhaps any player in the draft. Though he still must fully recover from knee surgery and improve his blocking, Ingram should be the Eagles starting TE by 2010.

#157 - CB/S Victor "Macho Harris - Value again. The #113 ranked player in the draft, Harris was 1st-team All-ACC in 2007 and 2008. A physical and instinctive CB in college Harris' biggest weakness is pure speed which is why he profiles as a S for the Eagles. Playing S will allow Harris to maximize his elite ball skills.

CB Ellis Hobbs - acquired for the low price of two 5th round picks, the 25 yr old Hobbs is reunited w/ former teamate Asante Samuel. While not a pro-bowler, Hobbs is a legitimate #2 starting CB who would see significant playing time for any team in the league. Coming off somewhat of a down season (he did not blossom into the pro-bowl player the Patriots thought he would when Samuel departed) he will be highly motivated to perform as he enters the final year of this contract. In a league where you can never have too many good CBs, Hobbs provides even more protection for the Eagles as they deal w/ disgruntled CB Sheldon Brown

Additionally, through draft day maneuvering, the Eagles procured additional 3rd, 5th, and 6th round picks in next years draft.

Finally, the Eagles added a bunch of Samoans in the late rounds of the draft. As far as I am concerned there is no downside to this strategy. If they pan out great, if not they will at the least lighten the mood in training camp and perhaps share some cool Samoan dances the players inevitably will love.

So in conclusion, value throughout and they essentially met every team need while adding valuable picks in next years draft.

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