Saturday, April 25, 2009

Live 1st Round Draft Analysis

1) Detroit - QB Matthew Stafford
Ananlysis: Do I like the pick? Not really, but the Lions were in a tough spot. The big issue here is the ridiculous contract. Also, I wonder how the fans at the draft decide how to cheer for random teams/players as Stafford's announcement was met with a chorus of boos.

2) St. Louis - OT Jason Smith
Analysis: This pick likely came down to Smith and Sanchez and they took the OT. I think it was the right move. Smith is super-athletic (caught 6 passes for 70 yds and a TD as a freshmen TE) and fills a gaping whole. Sanchez would have been a good pick, Smith is the better pick.

3) Kansas City - DE Tyson Jackson
Analysis: Jackson is the best 3-4 end in this draft, though his overall grade might not justify this spot. He definitely fills a need and might portend a trade of last years 1st round pick Glenn Dorsey (to Atlanta?) who is not a good fit in the Chiefs new scheme. Aaron Curry is a great prospect, but generally you dont make this type of financial commitment to a 3-4 ILB.

4) Seattle - LB Aaron Curry
Analysis: The trade of Julian Peterson clearly opened the door for Seattle to take who many had as the top overall player in the draft. Sanchez and Monroe would have been understandable picks, but Curry helps most in 2009 and Seattle thinks if healthy they can win their division this year.

5) New York Jets from Cle - QB Mark Sanchez
Analysis: I felt all along the Jets would move up if Sanchez dropped past the top few picks and they did. Talent-wise Sanchez presents a clear upgrade and promise for the future at the most important position on the field. I thought the Jets would have to give up much more to make this move, but Mangini as most coaches do (over)value players they are familiar with.

6) Cincinnati - OT Andre Smith
Analysis: Bengals had 3 great options here with Smith, Monroe, and Raji. Certain teams had serious questions about Monroe's health and the Bengals might have been one of those teams. This pick fills a big hole and makes alot of sense.

7) Oakland - WR Darius Heyward-Bey
Analysis: Wow. This had been rumored based on Al Davis' love of speed, but I just did not believe it. Heyward-Bey is at this point clearly a better athlete than WR and Oakland probably could have traded down and still got him. Personally, if speed is what they were after, I think Jeremy Maclin provides similar speed with superior hands, shiftiness, and route-running skills.

8) Jacksonville - OT Eugene Monroe
Analysis: OL has been a problem for Jacksonville the last few seasons and Monroe provides a longterm infusion of talent. Crabtree, Maclin, and Raji all would have been fine picks. Assuming his health is not an issue, Monroe is a fine pick though Crabtree and Raji are probably better players.

9) Green Bay - NT B.J. Raji
Analysis: This is the absolute right pick. A great nose tackle is the key to good 3-4 defense and Raji has a chance to man that difficult position to fill as GB makes their schematic switch. This pick was a no-brainer and was an excellent match of need and value.

10) San Francisco - WR Michael Crabtree
Analysis: No-brainer. SF has not had a #1 WR since T.O. and that was a long time ago. Crabtree will open up the entire offense and benefit whoever is playing QB. Great pick considering value and need.

11) Buffalo - DE Aaron Maybin
Analysis: It was pretty clear the Bills were going to go DE with this pick and the question was Maybin or Orakpo. I might have gone Orakpo, but do not have a real problem with the pick as Maybin is raw, but has the pure ability to get after the QB.

12) Denver - RB Knowshon Moreno
Analysis: Denver had Tyson Jackson and BJ Raji on top of their board and once they were gone the offensive head coach Josh McDaniels made this call to take the best RB in the draft. Surprised it happened at 12 and not 18. Also, Denver added some RBs in FA, but none have the talent of Moreno.

13) Washington - DE Brian Orakpo
Analysis: Another no-brainer. Orakpo will be an excellent addition to the Redskin defense and fills a huge need. Playing next to Haynesworth will only make life easier for Orakpo and harder for opposing offenses. Great pick.

14) New Orleans - DB Malcom Williams
Analysis: Great pick. Makes alot of sense. The back seven needed an infusion of talent and Williams provides that, likely at FS.

15) Houston - OLB Brian Cushing
Analysis: I hate this pick. Safety was a bigger need and WR Jeremy Maclin was a better value. I would have taken Maclin or traded back and looked for Clay Matthews or S Louis Delmas. I have major concerns about Cushing both in terms of durability and upside. Many believe his frame is maxed out. As a Texans fan I am very dissappointed.

16) San Diego - DE/OLB Larry English
Analysis: I really thought SD not having a second round pick would trade down out of this spot even if not for full value. English carried a legit late first round grade and provides insurance for Merriman's recovery. I think OT M. Oher would have been a better value and filled a more immediate need.

17) Tampa Bay from Cleveland - QB Josh Freeman
Analysis: TB has been linked to Freeman for months so this is not a shocker. Freeman has alot of growing and learning to do so patience will be the key for him. He has the physical tools, but more or less everything else is the question. Bust potential here and perhaps a reach, but if a team has a conviction on a QB that you might not have a chance at later then it is probably a reasonable pick.

18) Denver - DE Robert Ayers
Analysis: Ayers has the size to come in and play end in Denver's new 3-4 scheme. This pick represents good value and fills a team need.

19) Philly from Cleveland - WR Jeremy Maclin
Analysis: I am sort of conflicted with this pick. It represents a tremendous value, but I do have questions about whether it might not have been better to trade the pick for a Braylon Edwards or Anquan Boldin. Also, Pettigrew would have been a good choice as well though there should be TE options available in round 2. Back to Maclin, he is a fantastic talent that needs to refine his route-running, but has the tools to be a pro-bowl caliber WR. He was the #11 player in the entire draft according to ESPN's Scouts Inc and #10 on Mel Kiper's big board.

20) Detroit - TE Brandon Pettigrew
Analysis: The Lions had some very good options in Pettigrew, Oher, and Jerry. Pettigrew is a very good pick that provides great value and fills a need. This pick will really benefit #1 pick M. Stafford.

21) Cleveland from Philly - C Alex Mack
Analysis: I thought this would be a rush LB such as Everette Brown, but Mack was the top rated C in the draft and will provide a boost to Clevelands OL. A reasonable pick.

22) Minnesota - WR Percy Harvin
Analysis: Despite all of his red flags, Harvin has been linked to Minnesota and provides a potential playmaker that could free room for Adrian Peterson to operate. The Vikings could have used an OL such as M. Oher or Ebon Britton, but chose to take a chance on one of the drafts most explosive players.

23) Baltimore from NE - OT Michael Oher
Analysis: Great pick. Tremendous value and is an upgrade for Baltimore's o-line that must go up against the Steelers defense twice a season. There are questions about Oher and he is far from a sure thing, but the talent is here and at pick #23 the price is right in terms of value and money.

24) Atlanta - DT Peria Jerry
Analysis: Jerry has been linked to the Falcons for some time as DT was a glaring hole. At this spot in the draft he presents good value and fills a need. I like this pick.

25) Miami - CB Vontae Davis
Analysis: CB and WR were the Dolphin's biggest needs and they get perhaps the best pure corner in the draft in Davis. There are issues about his mental approach to the game (much like his brother Vernon), but he has the size and all of the physical tools (again like his brother) to be an elite corner. Good value, good pick.

26) Green Bay from NE - Clay Matthews OLB
Analysis: A bit of a surprise pick with an OT like Ebon Britton and a rush LB Everette Brown on the board, but he does project as a good fit as a 3-4 OLB. An ok pick depending on what they had to give up to get this high.

27) Indy - RB Donald Brown
Analysis: I did not see this pick coming at all. I figured Indy to address DT (Z. Hood) or a WR. That said Brown fits Indy's system and should be a good compliment to Joseph Addai. Still not sure if Indy did not have bigger needs.

28) Buffalo - C Eric Wood
Analysis: The #2 rated center in the draft that carried a legit high 2nd round grade will provide a big upgrade to Buffalo's o-line. Ok value and fills a need. An ok pick.

29) NY Giants - WR Hakeem Nicks
Analysis: Everyone knew this was almost a lock to be a WR and the only question was which one. Nicks and Kenny Britt were the highest rated WRs left on the board and Nicks is a good selection. He has only marginal speed, but he is physical, has good hands, and can contribute quite quickly. Good value and fills a hole = good pick.

30) Tenn Titans - WR Kenny Britt
Analysis: The Titans have needed WR help for some time and Nate Washington is not the total answer to their problem. Britt figured to go about this spot in the draft and fits in well with the Titans both in terms of need and value.

31) Arizona - RB Chris "Beanie" Wells
Analysis: This was likely to be a RB all along and despite durability concerns, Wells is a great talent and a fantastic value at this point in the draft. Very good pick.

32) Pitt Steelers - DL Evander Hood
Analysis: Classic Steelers pick. Hood is a good versatile player that can slide along the Steelers line providing great youth and depth. Reasonable pick.

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