What are the arguments against year-round school?
I can think of so many arguments for it, but I would certainly like to hear any arguments for why it is a bad idea.
qe2
14 years ago
Saturday, July 24, 2010
Wednesday, July 21, 2010
The NBA, Race & Economics
The following is an excerpt from a column by Dr. Boyce Watkins for thGrio.com:
It is frustrating to read things like this. I would like to ask Dr. Watkins if what is being done to NBA players is a financial "pimp slapping" then what would he describe regular employees who are being laid off, who dont have guaranteed contracts, and many of those whom have kept their jobs have seen benefits begin to fall?
I don't want to get caught up in semantics though so let's get to the meat of this. His statements evidence a horribly flawed understanding of the CBA system. The CBA system is not a "star system". The CBA hurts stars and helps your average to below average players. Having a system like he described would be the most damaging thing possible for all except a few. Yes, without a CBA Kobe would make $50 million. LeBron would have made $70 million. What Watkins completely overlooks is the flip-side of that coin. If LeBron is making $70 million, that money is largely coming out of his teammates pockets. There is no way in a non-CBA system Daniel Gibson gets a guaranteed 5 year $20 million contract. There is no way Amir Johnson gets 5 years $32 million. The limit on the exorbitant earnings of the elite players benefits all of the other players (as Dr. Watkins points out, most of whom are black).
Think of it this way. If the Cavs were making a movie last year and their players were the cast how would everyone get paid. You would pay your star Denzel Washington (LeBron) $25-$30 million. Then you probably have your 2-3 supporting actors that lets say make $10 million (Halle Berry, Christian Bale). Guess how the rest of the cast is filled out. Everyone else makes $2 million or less and many below $1 million.
Watkins's idea of what would be a better system for NBA players would drastically cut the earnings of most of the league's players. Right now the least an NBA veteran is allowed to be paid is $1.4 million and the average NBA salary is over $5 million a year.
The idea of control is also slightly misguided. Highly paid professionals in most industries are often controlled in many ways whether directly or indirectly so as to protect the image of business and the relationship of the business with partners, sponsors, customers, etc.
I have no doubt that racism still exists and that it still happens that, a minority will be at a disadvantage and have to work harder than his white counterpart to achieve the same compensation. It is these jobs--the everyday jobs that affect millions more than those unfortunate few subjected to being controlled and forced to play a game they love for $5 million per year.
1 in 4 US households makes under $25,000 per year. One of those households would have to work for 160 years to make what Daniel Gibson made this season playing for the Cavs. Gibson averaged 6 points and 1 assist in 19 minutes per game.
Third, one area where race does enter the picture is the fact that NBA players (most of whom are black) are certainly the property of the league. Most of the players think they're getting rich, when the truth is that they are being financially pimp-slapped.
Collective bargaining agreements keep salaries so restricted that players are not earning anything near their full market value. Not to say that we should ever feel sorry for someone earning millions of dollars per year, but a fair market would have led to Kobe Bryant earning over $50 million per year, since he brings at least that much to the Lakers organization with his presence.
Instead, that money gets pocketed by the owners. Additionally, when one throws in the manner by which players are controlled by the league in almost every aspect of their lives, William Rhoden's concept of the "40 million dollar slave" is certainly in full-effect.
It is frustrating to read things like this. I would like to ask Dr. Watkins if what is being done to NBA players is a financial "pimp slapping" then what would he describe regular employees who are being laid off, who dont have guaranteed contracts, and many of those whom have kept their jobs have seen benefits begin to fall?
I don't want to get caught up in semantics though so let's get to the meat of this. His statements evidence a horribly flawed understanding of the CBA system. The CBA system is not a "star system". The CBA hurts stars and helps your average to below average players. Having a system like he described would be the most damaging thing possible for all except a few. Yes, without a CBA Kobe would make $50 million. LeBron would have made $70 million. What Watkins completely overlooks is the flip-side of that coin. If LeBron is making $70 million, that money is largely coming out of his teammates pockets. There is no way in a non-CBA system Daniel Gibson gets a guaranteed 5 year $20 million contract. There is no way Amir Johnson gets 5 years $32 million. The limit on the exorbitant earnings of the elite players benefits all of the other players (as Dr. Watkins points out, most of whom are black).
Think of it this way. If the Cavs were making a movie last year and their players were the cast how would everyone get paid. You would pay your star Denzel Washington (LeBron) $25-$30 million. Then you probably have your 2-3 supporting actors that lets say make $10 million (Halle Berry, Christian Bale). Guess how the rest of the cast is filled out. Everyone else makes $2 million or less and many below $1 million.
Watkins's idea of what would be a better system for NBA players would drastically cut the earnings of most of the league's players. Right now the least an NBA veteran is allowed to be paid is $1.4 million and the average NBA salary is over $5 million a year.
The idea of control is also slightly misguided. Highly paid professionals in most industries are often controlled in many ways whether directly or indirectly so as to protect the image of business and the relationship of the business with partners, sponsors, customers, etc.
I have no doubt that racism still exists and that it still happens that, a minority will be at a disadvantage and have to work harder than his white counterpart to achieve the same compensation. It is these jobs--the everyday jobs that affect millions more than those unfortunate few subjected to being controlled and forced to play a game they love for $5 million per year.
1 in 4 US households makes under $25,000 per year. One of those households would have to work for 160 years to make what Daniel Gibson made this season playing for the Cavs. Gibson averaged 6 points and 1 assist in 19 minutes per game.
Monday, July 19, 2010
NBA Economics, Kuselias
NBA Economics:
The luxury tax in the NBA is extremely penal -- dollar for dollar. Let's take the Rockets who are now over the luxury tax ($9 mil over). They are paying David Andersen 2.5 mil next year, but because of the luxury tax they are effectively paying him 5 mil.
If I am the Rockets GM I am calling up teams with trade exceptions or cap space like Cleveland and working on a win-win deal. The Cavs lost some guy named LeBron, but they also lost both of their centers. Andersen is nothing special, but he can be a rotation big. Therefore,
Rockets trade Andersen and 1.5 mil in cash for a 2nd round pick.
Effect: With the signing of Brad Miller, the Rockets have Yao, Miller, Hill, and Hayes at C. The chances of Andersen seeing the floor were slight. This trade gives the Cavs a solid backup big that they will only have to pay $1 mil and all they give up is a future 2nd rd. pick. Meanwhile, this deal saves the Rockets $3.5 mil.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ESPN Radio's Erik Kuselias
Called Michael Jordan's comments on LeBron--basically that he never would have called up Bird and Magic and say lets play together because I wanted to beat those guys--disingenuous because he didnt have to call them because the Bulls "hooked you up with great players...they surrounded Jordan with great players. He didnt win anything before they did."
As a side note: Jordan was losing to dominant Celtics teams and the bad boy Pistons. Jordan wasnt exactly losing to the vaunted 2009 Magic or an aging Boston Big Three that didnt have home court.
Then let's look at Jordan's first title team and point out all the great players since Kuselias said Jordan was "surrounded by them" as in more than just Pippen who we know was indeed great.
The Bulls rotation (top 8 guys minutewise): Jordan, Pippen, Horace Grant, John Paxson, Bill Cartwright, Cliff Levingston, Scott Williams, and Craig Hodges
Wow! Cartwright and Paxson!!! Look at that bench too!!! Grant was a very good defensive player, but great is far too strong--he never made a single all-star team.
Getting minutes on the second three-peat was Ron Harper, Luc Longley, Bill Wennington, and Randy Brown. Surrounded.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The only player in the modern era to do it without any great players around him was Hakeem Olajuwon in 93-94
That team's rotation was Olajuwon, Robert Horry, Vernon Maxwell, Otis Thorpe, Kenny Smith, Sam Cassell, Carl Herrera
Cassell was a rookie and Horry was in just his 2nd year
The next year when the Rockets won their 2nd title they had to go through:
The Western Conferences top 3 seeds: Utah (Malone, Stockton); Phoenix (Barkley, Kevin Johnson, Dan Majerle, Danny Manning); San Antonio (Robinson)
And Orlando - the East's top seed who had Shaq, Penny, and Horace Grant
All Olajuwon did was put up this line in the playoffs:
33 pts 10 rbs 4.5 assts 2.9 blks 1.1 stls
Result: Dream > LeBron
Not saying it really. I'm just putting it out there.
The luxury tax in the NBA is extremely penal -- dollar for dollar. Let's take the Rockets who are now over the luxury tax ($9 mil over). They are paying David Andersen 2.5 mil next year, but because of the luxury tax they are effectively paying him 5 mil.
If I am the Rockets GM I am calling up teams with trade exceptions or cap space like Cleveland and working on a win-win deal. The Cavs lost some guy named LeBron, but they also lost both of their centers. Andersen is nothing special, but he can be a rotation big. Therefore,
Rockets trade Andersen and 1.5 mil in cash for a 2nd round pick.
Effect: With the signing of Brad Miller, the Rockets have Yao, Miller, Hill, and Hayes at C. The chances of Andersen seeing the floor were slight. This trade gives the Cavs a solid backup big that they will only have to pay $1 mil and all they give up is a future 2nd rd. pick. Meanwhile, this deal saves the Rockets $3.5 mil.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ESPN Radio's Erik Kuselias
Called Michael Jordan's comments on LeBron--basically that he never would have called up Bird and Magic and say lets play together because I wanted to beat those guys--disingenuous because he didnt have to call them because the Bulls "hooked you up with great players...they surrounded Jordan with great players. He didnt win anything before they did."
As a side note: Jordan was losing to dominant Celtics teams and the bad boy Pistons. Jordan wasnt exactly losing to the vaunted 2009 Magic or an aging Boston Big Three that didnt have home court.
Then let's look at Jordan's first title team and point out all the great players since Kuselias said Jordan was "surrounded by them" as in more than just Pippen who we know was indeed great.
The Bulls rotation (top 8 guys minutewise): Jordan, Pippen, Horace Grant, John Paxson, Bill Cartwright, Cliff Levingston, Scott Williams, and Craig Hodges
Wow! Cartwright and Paxson!!! Look at that bench too!!! Grant was a very good defensive player, but great is far too strong--he never made a single all-star team.
Getting minutes on the second three-peat was Ron Harper, Luc Longley, Bill Wennington, and Randy Brown. Surrounded.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The only player in the modern era to do it without any great players around him was Hakeem Olajuwon in 93-94
That team's rotation was Olajuwon, Robert Horry, Vernon Maxwell, Otis Thorpe, Kenny Smith, Sam Cassell, Carl Herrera
Cassell was a rookie and Horry was in just his 2nd year
The next year when the Rockets won their 2nd title they had to go through:
The Western Conferences top 3 seeds: Utah (Malone, Stockton); Phoenix (Barkley, Kevin Johnson, Dan Majerle, Danny Manning); San Antonio (Robinson)
And Orlando - the East's top seed who had Shaq, Penny, and Horace Grant
All Olajuwon did was put up this line in the playoffs:
33 pts 10 rbs 4.5 assts 2.9 blks 1.1 stls
Result: Dream > LeBron
Not saying it really. I'm just putting it out there.
Sunday, July 18, 2010
Charles Barkley on LeBron
"He'll never be Jordan," Barkley told 790 the Ticket in Miami earlier in the week. "This clearly takes him out of the conversation. He can win as much as he wants to.
"There would have been something honorable about staying in Cleveland and trying to win it as 'The Man' ... LeBron, if he would've in Cleveland, and if he could've got a championship there, it would have been over the top for his legacy, just one in Cleveland. No matter how many he wins in Miami, it clearly is Dwyane Wade's team."
Monday, July 12, 2010
Pulling my hair out - Woody Paige
Asked about Cavs owner Dan Gilbert Paige said the following:
How can you be a sports writer/commentator and be this dumb?
#1 Only two teams (Lakers, Mavs) spent more money than Gilbert.
#2a Contracts in excess of 6 years are not possible under the current CBA.
#2b He cannot just sign Lebron to an extension. Lebron would of had to agree, something he clearly was not interested in doing.
Woody Paige, we are all dumber for having heard what you said. I award you no points and may God have mercy on your soul.
If he wanted to keep Lebron he should have spent more money. And he should have signed him to a 10 or 12 year contract to make sure this would not happen.
How can you be a sports writer/commentator and be this dumb?
#1 Only two teams (Lakers, Mavs) spent more money than Gilbert.
#2a Contracts in excess of 6 years are not possible under the current CBA.
#2b He cannot just sign Lebron to an extension. Lebron would of had to agree, something he clearly was not interested in doing.
Woody Paige, we are all dumber for having heard what you said. I award you no points and may God have mercy on your soul.
Sunday, July 11, 2010
Breaking down the Miami Big 3 and pumping the brakes on the expectations
Here are the scouting reports for James and Wade:
Just from reading the individual scouting reports (by John Hollinger of ESPN Insider) you do not know if Player A is Wade or James and the same goes for Player B. Heck, you don’t even know if they aren’t the same player based just on these scouting reports. You can tell though that you would love to have either Player A or Player B on your team.
Where this is going and why I am puzzled by the instantaneous crowning of the Heat as champions should be evident. James and Wade are incredible talents—they are both 10s. However, in this case, 10 + 10 does not = 20. The 10 + 10 = 20 misconception in one almost everyone is falling for and must explain the Heat's rise in Vegas to almost overwhelming title favorites. It is a hugely important point that save for a few (John Barry) is being largely overlooked. The thing that makes James and Wade most devastating is the same—their almost incomparable ability to penetrate and either finish or draw a foul (at times, seemingly at will). The problem is that there is only one ball and thus the Heat benefit less than people realize from having two players with this particular skill, as impressive as it is. For all the Cavs failings, what the team was missing was not a second player that duplicated James’ best skill. Next season, when Wade does what he does best—drive to the basket—the king will be standing behind the three point line watching. If Wade is doubled then he could kick it out to James who could shoot a 3, something he is no more than average at. The compliment to a penetrator is a deadly outside shooter (or a team of them) to space the floor and dare the opposition to help on the drive. The natural compliment is not another penetrator.
Let's put this very important point in terms of "usage rate". Usage rate shows what percentage of a team's offensive possession a player "uses" (shot, gets fouled, turnover). Last year, Wade was #1 in the NBA in usage rate and LeBron was #2. Their respective teams benefited greatly from having such high efficiency players dominate their offenses. Together with the Heat though, for every possession Wade uses, that is one that LeBron does not and vice versa. Basically, LeBron was much more valuable to the Cavs offense last season than he will be to the Heat offense this year and the same goes for Wade. Again, it is certainly great to have both of these guys, but 10+10 does not = 20.
Bosh of course is a strong compliment to either Wade or LeBron and arguably, the more significant compliment (Dirk would have been perfect). To be clear, I am not saying that the Heat are worse off having both Wade and LeBron or that the combination will be a disaster. It certainly will have its benefits as neither will be required to carry the same load night in and night out and if either is having an off night, the other can take a more prominent role and pick up the slack. I have heard some say that not having to shoulder such a load will allow Wade and LeBron to be fresher come playoff time, but the opposite is just as likely to be the case. With such a lack of depth, each will have to log as heavy a minute load as ever. As my final qualification, I do think that this team will be a contender in the East right away. That however, falls far short of a 7-5 title favorite. They are almost even money for goodness sakes! It is not clear to me why this team is even favored much less heavily favored over the Lakers (7-2) or the Magic for that matter all the way down at 9-1 (who on MIA is going to check Dwight Howard?). If I had to bet $100 or lose it, I would put it the Thunder (14-1) or Dallas or San Antonio (both 25-1) before I would bet on Miami with its potential $40 payout. It’s just a bad bet.
Debunking Some Talking Head Myths
I have heard a handful of statements supporting the Heat’s place as title favorites that I take issue with.
#1 – “People said just three guys could not work when Boston did it and they were wrong then.”
Well, as it turns out, the Big Three in Boston was actually more than 3. They had a young PG named Rajon Rondo who was in the early stages of becoming one of the premiere PGs in the league. They had a rugged young big man in Kendrick Perkins who rebounded the ball and played solid post defense against the oppositions toughest bigs. Then they had a 6th man who was their secret weapon off the bench in James Posey who shot 40% from the outside and played stellar defense. It was a natural team with players in defined roles at each position (much more so than the Heat). It played tremendous defense with KG being the defensive player of the year, Rondo one of the best in the business and Posey. These are things the Heat simply do not have (yet).
#2 – “Other players will wait in line to take the minimum to come play with these guys.”
There are two major issues undermining this statement. First, evidence is everywhere of NBA players being bankrupt within a few short years of leaving the league. As crazy as it sounds, the way these players spend and manage their money, many of them actually need to make money at a certain level. Important in its own right, but particularly so in light of the preceding point is the impending labor situation after the upcoming season. All signs point to an owner lockout that will not end until the players have been sufficiently rolled. Now is not the time for players to take a pay cut. For many, this might be their last good chance to “get theirs”.
Concluding Thought
My Heat prognosis: They will win a title – maybe two. However, they probably won’t win one this first year and even if they did, which I doubt they will, there is not enough solid reasoning to make them a better than 2 to 1 favorite. Going into 2011-2012 there will likely be a more compelling argument since they will have been able to use their mid-level exception to bring in another really solid piece (preferably a good defensive big that rebounds).
There is a major risk to all of my analysis. That is, that because we have never seen a team like this that all of my reasoning above, based on traditional basketball principles, could be inapplicable. If any team could rewrite the rules, it would be this one. However, until I see it—I won’t believe it.
It's easier said than done, but getting Player A to shoot a jump shot is 90 percent of the battle. Player A tried nearly half his shots in the basket area and made 64.1 percent of them, in addition to the profusion of fouls he drew. As a jump shooter, however, he's ordinary: Player A hit 41.7 percent of his long 2s and only 31.7 percent of his 3s.
Player B devastates opponents with his penetration from the top of the key…Getting him to shoot jumpers is the game within a game, because he isn't terribly accurate from outside. But he's good enough that opponents need to make an effort to challenge his jumpers, and in the meantime he scores or gets to the line virtually every time he gets in the paint.
Just from reading the individual scouting reports (by John Hollinger of ESPN Insider) you do not know if Player A is Wade or James and the same goes for Player B. Heck, you don’t even know if they aren’t the same player based just on these scouting reports. You can tell though that you would love to have either Player A or Player B on your team.
Where this is going and why I am puzzled by the instantaneous crowning of the Heat as champions should be evident. James and Wade are incredible talents—they are both 10s. However, in this case, 10 + 10 does not = 20. The 10 + 10 = 20 misconception in one almost everyone is falling for and must explain the Heat's rise in Vegas to almost overwhelming title favorites. It is a hugely important point that save for a few (John Barry) is being largely overlooked. The thing that makes James and Wade most devastating is the same—their almost incomparable ability to penetrate and either finish or draw a foul (at times, seemingly at will). The problem is that there is only one ball and thus the Heat benefit less than people realize from having two players with this particular skill, as impressive as it is. For all the Cavs failings, what the team was missing was not a second player that duplicated James’ best skill. Next season, when Wade does what he does best—drive to the basket—the king will be standing behind the three point line watching. If Wade is doubled then he could kick it out to James who could shoot a 3, something he is no more than average at. The compliment to a penetrator is a deadly outside shooter (or a team of them) to space the floor and dare the opposition to help on the drive. The natural compliment is not another penetrator.
Let's put this very important point in terms of "usage rate". Usage rate shows what percentage of a team's offensive possession a player "uses" (shot, gets fouled, turnover). Last year, Wade was #1 in the NBA in usage rate and LeBron was #2. Their respective teams benefited greatly from having such high efficiency players dominate their offenses. Together with the Heat though, for every possession Wade uses, that is one that LeBron does not and vice versa. Basically, LeBron was much more valuable to the Cavs offense last season than he will be to the Heat offense this year and the same goes for Wade. Again, it is certainly great to have both of these guys, but 10+10 does not = 20.
Bosh of course is a strong compliment to either Wade or LeBron and arguably, the more significant compliment (Dirk would have been perfect). To be clear, I am not saying that the Heat are worse off having both Wade and LeBron or that the combination will be a disaster. It certainly will have its benefits as neither will be required to carry the same load night in and night out and if either is having an off night, the other can take a more prominent role and pick up the slack. I have heard some say that not having to shoulder such a load will allow Wade and LeBron to be fresher come playoff time, but the opposite is just as likely to be the case. With such a lack of depth, each will have to log as heavy a minute load as ever. As my final qualification, I do think that this team will be a contender in the East right away. That however, falls far short of a 7-5 title favorite. They are almost even money for goodness sakes! It is not clear to me why this team is even favored much less heavily favored over the Lakers (7-2) or the Magic for that matter all the way down at 9-1 (who on MIA is going to check Dwight Howard?). If I had to bet $100 or lose it, I would put it the Thunder (14-1) or Dallas or San Antonio (both 25-1) before I would bet on Miami with its potential $40 payout. It’s just a bad bet.
Debunking Some Talking Head Myths
I have heard a handful of statements supporting the Heat’s place as title favorites that I take issue with.
#1 – “People said just three guys could not work when Boston did it and they were wrong then.”
Well, as it turns out, the Big Three in Boston was actually more than 3. They had a young PG named Rajon Rondo who was in the early stages of becoming one of the premiere PGs in the league. They had a rugged young big man in Kendrick Perkins who rebounded the ball and played solid post defense against the oppositions toughest bigs. Then they had a 6th man who was their secret weapon off the bench in James Posey who shot 40% from the outside and played stellar defense. It was a natural team with players in defined roles at each position (much more so than the Heat). It played tremendous defense with KG being the defensive player of the year, Rondo one of the best in the business and Posey. These are things the Heat simply do not have (yet).
#2 – “Other players will wait in line to take the minimum to come play with these guys.”
There are two major issues undermining this statement. First, evidence is everywhere of NBA players being bankrupt within a few short years of leaving the league. As crazy as it sounds, the way these players spend and manage their money, many of them actually need to make money at a certain level. Important in its own right, but particularly so in light of the preceding point is the impending labor situation after the upcoming season. All signs point to an owner lockout that will not end until the players have been sufficiently rolled. Now is not the time for players to take a pay cut. For many, this might be their last good chance to “get theirs”.
Concluding Thought
My Heat prognosis: They will win a title – maybe two. However, they probably won’t win one this first year and even if they did, which I doubt they will, there is not enough solid reasoning to make them a better than 2 to 1 favorite. Going into 2011-2012 there will likely be a more compelling argument since they will have been able to use their mid-level exception to bring in another really solid piece (preferably a good defensive big that rebounds).
There is a major risk to all of my analysis. That is, that because we have never seen a team like this that all of my reasoning above, based on traditional basketball principles, could be inapplicable. If any team could rewrite the rules, it would be this one. However, until I see it—I won’t believe it.
Friday, July 9, 2010
I am going to pull my hair out if I have to listen to Dan Le Batard anymore
Le Batard continues to compare the Miami big 3 to what Boston did.
He argued with Bill Simmons that it is the same exact situation--that people said "oh this Celtics team only has three guys...it can't work" but it did work says Le Batard.
He went on to say that "the Heat are going to be fine because someone on their team, one of the other guys, is going to turn into a Rondo"
Really? Top 5 PGs who play ridiculous defense grow on trees? That statement alone costs him his credibility.
Celtics had Perkins to play post defense and Posey playing great defense and hitting 3's off the bench.
It is significantly different and I am tired of hearing people make that comparison.
Le Batard went further to say "even if say Wade went out for the year, with LeBron and Bosh the Heat would still be the favorite in the East".
What??? A two person team with 10 nobodies, no PG and no C?
This is homerism at its peak.
I will have more on the Heat later.
He argued with Bill Simmons that it is the same exact situation--that people said "oh this Celtics team only has three guys...it can't work" but it did work says Le Batard.
He went on to say that "the Heat are going to be fine because someone on their team, one of the other guys, is going to turn into a Rondo"
Really? Top 5 PGs who play ridiculous defense grow on trees? That statement alone costs him his credibility.
Celtics had Perkins to play post defense and Posey playing great defense and hitting 3's off the bench.
It is significantly different and I am tired of hearing people make that comparison.
Le Batard went further to say "even if say Wade went out for the year, with LeBron and Bosh the Heat would still be the favorite in the East".
What??? A two person team with 10 nobodies, no PG and no C?
This is homerism at its peak.
I will have more on the Heat later.
Thursday, July 8, 2010
The task is a difficult one: rank these PGs in order of who you would take with the 1st pick if all were in the same draft and are the same age they were when they entered the league
Of course we have the benefit of hindsight on some of these guys and we are going largely (Derrick Rose) or entirely (John Wall) off of projection with some others.
Still lets get to it.
The Players:
Stephen Curry
Brandon Jennings
Chris Paul
Rajon Rondo
Derrick Rose
Ricky Rubio
John Wall
Russell Westbrook
Deron Williams
My List:
1. Paul
2. Williams
3. Rose
4. Rondo
5. Wall
6. Westbrook
7. Curry
8. Rubio
9. Jennings
More detailed explanations to come.
Of course we have the benefit of hindsight on some of these guys and we are going largely (Derrick Rose) or entirely (John Wall) off of projection with some others.
Still lets get to it.
The Players:
Stephen Curry
Brandon Jennings
Chris Paul
Rajon Rondo
Derrick Rose
Ricky Rubio
John Wall
Russell Westbrook
Deron Williams
My List:
1. Paul
2. Williams
3. Rose
4. Rondo
5. Wall
6. Westbrook
7. Curry
8. Rubio
9. Jennings
More detailed explanations to come.
Gleaning Anything From the LeBron Announcement Special?
They say LBJ will make the announcement in the first 10 minutes and then there will be Wilbon doing interviews with people in various places. Well lets see...who exactly would be getting interviewed if he was going back to Cleveland (whom I have for most of this process considered the favorite). Now, if LBJ picks the Heat then you have your perfect ESPN interviews: 1) LBJ 2) Wade & Bosh 3) Pat Riley
Since it hasn't happened yet I won't go into much length, but if LBJ joins Wade & Bosh in Miami, they will NOT win an NBA title next year. (Now the year after that and beyond--whole nother story since they own 2 1st round picks, a mid-level exception, and a bi-annual exception they can use to build the supporting cast next offseason).
BTW, the talking heads on Around the Horn are ridiculous (Woody Paige & Bill Plachke chief among them). They said today regardless of who else they got, the Heat were guaranteed going to the NBA finals next season.
Since it hasn't happened yet I won't go into much length, but if LBJ joins Wade & Bosh in Miami, they will NOT win an NBA title next year. (Now the year after that and beyond--whole nother story since they own 2 1st round picks, a mid-level exception, and a bi-annual exception they can use to build the supporting cast next offseason).
BTW, the talking heads on Around the Horn are ridiculous (Woody Paige & Bill Plachke chief among them). They said today regardless of who else they got, the Heat were guaranteed going to the NBA finals next season.
Saturday, July 3, 2010
The Greatest NBA Trade I Have Ever Come Up With
It can't happen, but only because it makes too much sense. It improves the future of every single team, makes sense financially, and works under the cap.
And the scary thing is I came up with it laying in bed with my eyes closed trying to fall asleep. Is that impressive or sad or disturbing? I don't really know.
The question as you read on is: Which team would not say yes?
T-Wolves trade: C Al Jefferson, SF Wesley Johnson, PG Ricky Rubio
Pacers trade: SF Danny Granger, C Roy Hibbert
Sixers trade: SG Andre Iguodala
Heat trade: PF Michael Beasley
T-Wolves get: SF Danny Granger, SG Andre Iguodala
Pacers get: C Al Jefferson, PF Michael Beasley, PG Ricky Rubio
Sixers get: SF Wesley Johnson
Heat get: C Roy Hibbert
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T-Wolves Analysis:
It is no secret that Minnesota does not believe that Jefferson and Kevin Love can play well together and that they have actively been shopping Jefferson and his sizable (though in my mind quite reasonable) contract. Not to mention, they just invested 33 million in Darko and 2008 draft pick Nikola Pekovic. Last season, the Wolves starting SF and SG were Ryan Gomes and Corey Brewer. Yuck.
This trade gives the T-Wolves a very exciting nucleus of Love, Granger, Iggy, and Johnny Flynn. Granger is 27, Love is 21, Iggy is 26, and Flynn is 21. All of them are under contract for at least 3 more years. Add in a lottery pick next season (preferably a C) and a solid bench with Martell Webster, Corey Brewer, and Ramon Sessions and you have a legit playoff team. On Rubio, his people clearly were never excited about Minnesota and while Indy is not much better, the starting spot is clearly his when he comes over (after next season) and the roster is a much more natural fit.
New Lineup: Darko, Love, Granger, Iguodala, Flynn
Pacers Analysis:
Indy has been stuck in a rut ever since the 'Malice in the Palace' derailed the franchise. They have been not good enough to contend, but not bad enough to get a real high pick in the draft that might be a difference maker. Instead, they have been relegated to the late lottery getting the likes of Brandon Rush and Tyler Hansbrough--not exactly franchise changers. Granger is a perennial all-star and a stud, but where is this team going as currently constructed?
This move reshapes the roster and gives the franchise a clearer path back to contention. Add in a 1st rd. pick next year at SG to push Rush to the bench and you have something here.
New Lineup: Jefferson, Beasley, P. George (#10 pick this year), B. Rush, Rubio
Sixers analysis:
Is Iggy for Johnson an even swap talent-wise? Not at all. However, this move clears a lot of money off of Philly's books and puts the new face of the franchise Evan Turner in a better position to succeed with Johnson as a much more natural sidekick. They also really like Holiday at the point. Elton Brand will continue to weigh down the roster until his contract comes off the books, but the new financial flexibility will give Philly room to add to its young nucleus without getting into the luxury tax. Add in a high pick in next year's draft in the front court and the team has real upside and direction. (Note: Turner is 21, Johnson 22, Holiday 20).
New Lineup: S. Hawes, E. Brand, W. Johnson, E. Turner, J. Holiday
Heat analysis:
This trade is predicated on the Heat signing one of the premier free agent PFs (Bosh/Amare/Boozer), which seems almost certain. Therefore, on a team with so much money tied up in a few players can you really afford to have two playing the same position (particularly when your GM (and next coach?) does not care much for the other)? Young inexpensive bigs are hard to find and while Hibbert is not a world-beater, he is a legit starting center who makes only $2 mil. This move actually frees up an extra 2.5 million in cap space for Miami. So lets say the Heat get Wade and Bosh, but not LeBron or Joe Johnson. With Hibbert on board and their remaining cap space they could sign say PG Ray Felton (who I am pretty high on and is only 25) for about 5 years 35 mil; SF Mike Miller as the dead-eye shooter to space the floor (hit 48% on 3s last season (41% for his career)) for mid-level type money 4 years 20 million. This leaves Miami with about $4 mil left to pick up a solid bench guy. Again, the theme is that the roster makes more sense after this move. This is a top 4 team in the East and a legit contender to go to the Finals.
New Lineup: Hibbert, Bosh, Miller, Wade, Felton
Who says no?
And the scary thing is I came up with it laying in bed with my eyes closed trying to fall asleep. Is that impressive or sad or disturbing? I don't really know.
The question as you read on is: Which team would not say yes?
T-Wolves trade: C Al Jefferson, SF Wesley Johnson, PG Ricky Rubio
Pacers trade: SF Danny Granger, C Roy Hibbert
Sixers trade: SG Andre Iguodala
Heat trade: PF Michael Beasley
T-Wolves get: SF Danny Granger, SG Andre Iguodala
Pacers get: C Al Jefferson, PF Michael Beasley, PG Ricky Rubio
Sixers get: SF Wesley Johnson
Heat get: C Roy Hibbert
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T-Wolves Analysis:
It is no secret that Minnesota does not believe that Jefferson and Kevin Love can play well together and that they have actively been shopping Jefferson and his sizable (though in my mind quite reasonable) contract. Not to mention, they just invested 33 million in Darko and 2008 draft pick Nikola Pekovic. Last season, the Wolves starting SF and SG were Ryan Gomes and Corey Brewer. Yuck.
This trade gives the T-Wolves a very exciting nucleus of Love, Granger, Iggy, and Johnny Flynn. Granger is 27, Love is 21, Iggy is 26, and Flynn is 21. All of them are under contract for at least 3 more years. Add in a lottery pick next season (preferably a C) and a solid bench with Martell Webster, Corey Brewer, and Ramon Sessions and you have a legit playoff team. On Rubio, his people clearly were never excited about Minnesota and while Indy is not much better, the starting spot is clearly his when he comes over (after next season) and the roster is a much more natural fit.
New Lineup: Darko, Love, Granger, Iguodala, Flynn
Pacers Analysis:
Indy has been stuck in a rut ever since the 'Malice in the Palace' derailed the franchise. They have been not good enough to contend, but not bad enough to get a real high pick in the draft that might be a difference maker. Instead, they have been relegated to the late lottery getting the likes of Brandon Rush and Tyler Hansbrough--not exactly franchise changers. Granger is a perennial all-star and a stud, but where is this team going as currently constructed?
This move reshapes the roster and gives the franchise a clearer path back to contention. Add in a 1st rd. pick next year at SG to push Rush to the bench and you have something here.
New Lineup: Jefferson, Beasley, P. George (#10 pick this year), B. Rush, Rubio
Sixers analysis:
Is Iggy for Johnson an even swap talent-wise? Not at all. However, this move clears a lot of money off of Philly's books and puts the new face of the franchise Evan Turner in a better position to succeed with Johnson as a much more natural sidekick. They also really like Holiday at the point. Elton Brand will continue to weigh down the roster until his contract comes off the books, but the new financial flexibility will give Philly room to add to its young nucleus without getting into the luxury tax. Add in a high pick in next year's draft in the front court and the team has real upside and direction. (Note: Turner is 21, Johnson 22, Holiday 20).
New Lineup: S. Hawes, E. Brand, W. Johnson, E. Turner, J. Holiday
Heat analysis:
This trade is predicated on the Heat signing one of the premier free agent PFs (Bosh/Amare/Boozer), which seems almost certain. Therefore, on a team with so much money tied up in a few players can you really afford to have two playing the same position (particularly when your GM (and next coach?) does not care much for the other)? Young inexpensive bigs are hard to find and while Hibbert is not a world-beater, he is a legit starting center who makes only $2 mil. This move actually frees up an extra 2.5 million in cap space for Miami. So lets say the Heat get Wade and Bosh, but not LeBron or Joe Johnson. With Hibbert on board and their remaining cap space they could sign say PG Ray Felton (who I am pretty high on and is only 25) for about 5 years 35 mil; SF Mike Miller as the dead-eye shooter to space the floor (hit 48% on 3s last season (41% for his career)) for mid-level type money 4 years 20 million. This leaves Miami with about $4 mil left to pick up a solid bench guy. Again, the theme is that the roster makes more sense after this move. This is a top 4 team in the East and a legit contender to go to the Finals.
New Lineup: Hibbert, Bosh, Miller, Wade, Felton
Who says no?
Friday, July 2, 2010
Chad Ford Tries to Rank Free Agents and Fails
Ford listed his top 15 free agents available and coming in at #12 is Shaq.
The same Shaq that was far more of a hindrance to the Cavs in the playoffs than he was a help. The same Shaq who at 38 has not really accepted what kind of player he is today. Not to mention it would be a shock if he did not miss at least 10 games.
For perspective, according to Chad Ford, Shaq is better than Luis Scola, John Salmons, Mike Miller, Al Harrington, Brendan Haywood, Ray Felton, J.J. Reddick, Tyrus Thomas, Richard Jefferson, and Udonis Haslem among many others.
Most of those guys I named are legit starters or at least 6th man type of players who will not demand minutes according to their will as well as the spotlight.
The same Shaq that was far more of a hindrance to the Cavs in the playoffs than he was a help. The same Shaq who at 38 has not really accepted what kind of player he is today. Not to mention it would be a shock if he did not miss at least 10 games.
For perspective, according to Chad Ford, Shaq is better than Luis Scola, John Salmons, Mike Miller, Al Harrington, Brendan Haywood, Ray Felton, J.J. Reddick, Tyrus Thomas, Richard Jefferson, and Udonis Haslem among many others.
Most of those guys I named are legit starters or at least 6th man type of players who will not demand minutes according to their will as well as the spotlight.
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