It's easier said than done, but getting Player A to shoot a jump shot is 90 percent of the battle. Player A tried nearly half his shots in the basket area and made 64.1 percent of them, in addition to the profusion of fouls he drew. As a jump shooter, however, he's ordinary: Player A hit 41.7 percent of his long 2s and only 31.7 percent of his 3s.
Player B devastates opponents with his penetration from the top of the key…Getting him to shoot jumpers is the game within a game, because he isn't terribly accurate from outside. But he's good enough that opponents need to make an effort to challenge his jumpers, and in the meantime he scores or gets to the line virtually every time he gets in the paint.
Just from reading the individual scouting reports (by John Hollinger of ESPN Insider) you do not know if Player A is Wade or James and the same goes for Player B. Heck, you don’t even know if they aren’t the same player based just on these scouting reports. You can tell though that you would love to have either Player A or Player B on your team.
Where this is going and why I am puzzled by the instantaneous crowning of the Heat as champions should be evident. James and Wade are incredible talents—they are both 10s. However, in this case, 10 + 10 does not = 20. The 10 + 10 = 20 misconception in one almost everyone is falling for and must explain the Heat's rise in Vegas to almost overwhelming title favorites. It is a hugely important point that save for a few (John Barry) is being largely overlooked. The thing that makes James and Wade most devastating is the same—their almost incomparable ability to penetrate and either finish or draw a foul (at times, seemingly at will). The problem is that there is only one ball and thus the Heat benefit less than people realize from having two players with this particular skill, as impressive as it is. For all the Cavs failings, what the team was missing was not a second player that duplicated James’ best skill. Next season, when Wade does what he does best—drive to the basket—the king will be standing behind the three point line watching. If Wade is doubled then he could kick it out to James who could shoot a 3, something he is no more than average at. The compliment to a penetrator is a deadly outside shooter (or a team of them) to space the floor and dare the opposition to help on the drive. The natural compliment is not another penetrator.
Let's put this very important point in terms of "usage rate". Usage rate shows what percentage of a team's offensive possession a player "uses" (shot, gets fouled, turnover). Last year, Wade was #1 in the NBA in usage rate and LeBron was #2. Their respective teams benefited greatly from having such high efficiency players dominate their offenses. Together with the Heat though, for every possession Wade uses, that is one that LeBron does not and vice versa. Basically, LeBron was much more valuable to the Cavs offense last season than he will be to the Heat offense this year and the same goes for Wade. Again, it is certainly great to have both of these guys, but 10+10 does not = 20.
Bosh of course is a strong compliment to either Wade or LeBron and arguably, the more significant compliment (Dirk would have been perfect). To be clear, I am not saying that the Heat are worse off having both Wade and LeBron or that the combination will be a disaster. It certainly will have its benefits as neither will be required to carry the same load night in and night out and if either is having an off night, the other can take a more prominent role and pick up the slack. I have heard some say that not having to shoulder such a load will allow Wade and LeBron to be fresher come playoff time, but the opposite is just as likely to be the case. With such a lack of depth, each will have to log as heavy a minute load as ever. As my final qualification, I do think that this team will be a contender in the East right away. That however, falls far short of a 7-5 title favorite. They are almost even money for goodness sakes! It is not clear to me why this team is even favored much less heavily favored over the Lakers (7-2) or the Magic for that matter all the way down at 9-1 (who on MIA is going to check Dwight Howard?). If I had to bet $100 or lose it, I would put it the Thunder (14-1) or Dallas or San Antonio (both 25-1) before I would bet on Miami with its potential $40 payout. It’s just a bad bet.
Debunking Some Talking Head Myths
I have heard a handful of statements supporting the Heat’s place as title favorites that I take issue with.
#1 – “People said just three guys could not work when Boston did it and they were wrong then.”
Well, as it turns out, the Big Three in Boston was actually more than 3. They had a young PG named Rajon Rondo who was in the early stages of becoming one of the premiere PGs in the league. They had a rugged young big man in Kendrick Perkins who rebounded the ball and played solid post defense against the oppositions toughest bigs. Then they had a 6th man who was their secret weapon off the bench in James Posey who shot 40% from the outside and played stellar defense. It was a natural team with players in defined roles at each position (much more so than the Heat). It played tremendous defense with KG being the defensive player of the year, Rondo one of the best in the business and Posey. These are things the Heat simply do not have (yet).
#2 – “Other players will wait in line to take the minimum to come play with these guys.”
There are two major issues undermining this statement. First, evidence is everywhere of NBA players being bankrupt within a few short years of leaving the league. As crazy as it sounds, the way these players spend and manage their money, many of them actually need to make money at a certain level. Important in its own right, but particularly so in light of the preceding point is the impending labor situation after the upcoming season. All signs point to an owner lockout that will not end until the players have been sufficiently rolled. Now is not the time for players to take a pay cut. For many, this might be their last good chance to “get theirs”.
Concluding Thought
My Heat prognosis: They will win a title – maybe two. However, they probably won’t win one this first year and even if they did, which I doubt they will, there is not enough solid reasoning to make them a better than 2 to 1 favorite. Going into 2011-2012 there will likely be a more compelling argument since they will have been able to use their mid-level exception to bring in another really solid piece (preferably a good defensive big that rebounds).
There is a major risk to all of my analysis. That is, that because we have never seen a team like this that all of my reasoning above, based on traditional basketball principles, could be inapplicable. If any team could rewrite the rules, it would be this one. However, until I see it—I won’t believe it.
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