NCAAF Week 14 Picks

Last week: 2-5
Season: 27-25-2

The picks:

CIN -2 at PITT
UH -2.5 at ECU
GT +1 vs. Clemson
UF -5 vs. BAMA
UT - 14 vs. NEB

I have done so poorly the past few weeks my winning season is on the line this week.

NCAAF Week 13 PIcks

Last week: 2-5

Season: 25-20-2

I have cooled off considerably.

The picks:

West Virginia straight-up over Pitt
Texas -21 @ Texas A&M
Florida State +24.5 at Florida
Auburn +10 vs. Alabama
Ole Miss -7.5 @ Miss. State
South Florida +7.5 vs. Miami
Rice +30 @ Houston




My 16 team playoff bracket is at the top.

NCAAF Week 12 Picks

Last Week: 2-4
Season: 23-15-2

Week 12 Picks:
Wisconsin -7 at Northwestern
Rutgers -8.5 at Syracuse
Kansas State +16.5 at Nebraska
SMU +3.5 at Marshall
Houston -23 vs Memphis
Oklahoma -6.5 at Texas Tech
Ohio State -11.5 at Michigan

I will take my shot at a current BCS bowl forecast:

This year bowls select in the following order: Sugar, Fiesta, Orange, Fiesta Sugar.

(1) The Sugar Bowl selects #6 Alabama. (2) The Fiesta Bowl selects #3 TCU (3) The Orange Bowl selects #4 Cincinatti (4) The Fiesta Bowl selects #5 Boise State (5) Sugar Bowl Selects #11 Iowa

National Championship: #1 Florida vs. #2 Texas
Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs. Iowa
Fiesta Bowl: TCU vs. Boise State
Rose Bowl: Ohio State vs. Oregon
Orange Bowl: Georgia Tech vs. Cincinnati

This could end up in a scenario where 3 teams go undefeated and only 1 will be the National Champion.

NCAAF Week 11 Picks

In my boredom at the library I took a break from studying to draw up the play above on a chalk board. The concept is fairly simple. UT has a play like this, but a little different. The play works like this:

#1 This is play action. The QB could obviously check to a run if the defense lined up in a particular way, but that is not the goal here. Therefore, the QB fakes the hand off to the back and reads the strong side linebacker.

#2 If the linebacker comes inside on the play action then the QB's throw is to the outside receiver who has come in for a WR screen. The reason being if the linebacker hesitates or bites on the run then the pulling guard will have time to make it to the outside and block him by the time the LB recovers. With the SLB blocked (or sucked inside) and the flex TE/WR blocking the nickel back you have potentially set up your outside WR for a 1 on 1 with the strong safety (SS) a few yards down field. (This assumes good blocks of course). This should work fairly well against man or zone. The blitz is not overly concerning since the WR throw is a fairly quick read.

#3 If the LB stays put (or goes w/ the flex) (thus making it more difficult for the pulling guard to get out there) the QB next reads the outside CB if he is in man, but jumps the screen you have a wide open throw to the slot down the sideline.

#4 If it is a straight zone then you still have a chance at the slot throw to the outside because the SS will have to make a good read and not commit either inside on the PA or to the WR screen. A false step could make it hard for him to get to the outside in time. If all else fails you will have the right WR running a crossing route over the middle

On to the picks:

Last Week: 2-1

Season: 21-11-2

Indiana +25.5 at Penn State

Idaho +31 at Boise State

Texas A&M +20 at OU

South Carolina +16 vs. Florida

Utah +19.5 at TCU

Houston -4.5 at UCF

Week 10 NCAAF Picks

Last week: 4-4
Season: 19-10-2

Houston +1
Oklahoma State -7.5
Oregon -5.5 - my leadpipe lock of the week

Just a teaser - under my current projections of how the season would end - the final 4 of my 8 team playoff would have Florida play Oregon and Texas play Alabama. Think about the ratings for those games.

Week 9 NCAAF Picks

Last week: 7-2
Season: 15-6-2

Miami -7
Georgia +15
Missouri -3.5
Texas -8.5
South Carolina +5.5
Houston -6.5
Ole Miss -4
Oregon +3

Week 8 NCAAF Picks

Last week: 5-1-1
Season: 8-4-2

Houston -16
Georgia Tech -5.5
Miss. State +22.5
Iowa +1.5
Arkansas +6.5
Washington +10
Oregon State +21
Oklahoma State -9.5
Penn State -4.5

Week 7 NCAAF Picks

Last week: 3-3-1

#1 Texas - 3 vs. OU
#2 Iowa + 2.5 vs. Wisconsin
#3 South Carolina + 17 vs. Bama
#4 Arkansas + 24.5 vs. Florida
#5 Kentucky + 13 vs. Auburn
#6 USC -10 vs. Notre Dame
#7 UH -17 vs. Tulane

Week 6 NCAAF Picks

- Houston +2.5 at Miss. State
- Bama -4.5 at Ole Miss
- LSU +8 vs. Florida
- UGA +1.5 at Tennessee
- Oregon -3.5 at UCLA
- OKST -5 at Texas A&M
- WISC +15.5 at Ohio State

College Football Season Predictions

Pre-season Rankings Are Crazy, but they do matter unfortunately do to the psychological bias called anchoring and adjustment. Thats an issue for another day. What matters to me is not where they start but where they end.

That being said here is my end of the regular season Top 25 Poll:

1. Florida
2. Texas
3. Oklahoma
4. Boise State
5. Penn State
6. Southern Cal
7. Ole Miss
8. Ohio State
9. Alabama
10. Oklahoma State
11. LSU
12. Cal
13. Notre Dame
14. TCU
15. Utah
16. Virginia Tech
17. Georgia Tech
18. Nebraska
19. Iowa
20. Florida State
21. Georgia
22. Oregon
23. BYU
24. Pitt
25. Houston

Others Receiving Votes: Kansas, Southern Miss, West Virginia, Cincinatti, North Carolina, Oregon State, Texas Tech, South Florida, Illinois, Miami

BCS National Championship Game: 1-Florida over 2-Texas
Sugar Bowl: 7-Ole Miss over 8-Ohio State
Fiesta Bowl: 3- Oklahoma over 4-Boise State
Rose Bowl: 6-USC over 5-Penn State
Orange Bowl: 16- Virginia Tech over 24- Pitt

Best Non-BCS Bowls:
Cotton: Alabama v. Oklahoma State
Holiday: Nebraska v. Cal
Outback: LSU v. Iowa

Children's Nutrition...

The other night Bill Maher went on a Maher-like rant on a subject of personal interest to me. The topic was healthcare policy and Maher addressed the issue of childhood obesity. Maher through out some shocking number (I cant recall precisely what it was), but to the tune of 1 in 6 5 years olds are obese. He statement was more or less: "these kids are not feeding themselves and if that is not child abuse then I dont know what is".

I will get the medical issue out of the way first. Though I do not propose to be an expert on the issue, the research I have done has pointed out that while some obesity has been linked to varying medical conditions (as a cause or significantly contributing factor) these conditions are believed to affect less than 7% of the child population, of which over 15% is obese.

Clearly, there is a distinction between violence perpetrated against children in what most conceive of as child abuse. So while I will not whole heartedly endorse his statement I certainly will not dismiss it. Obesity is a huge problem for the individuals affected and society at large. The health risks associated with obesity are enormous as are the costs for treating them. The physical issue is only one half of the equation as study after study (not to mention almost everyone's grade school experiences) show the negative emotional effects of obesity. From low self-esteem and depression to anger and aggressiveness, obesity takes a toll on more than the body.

Preventing obesity, particularly in children should in my opinion be an important societal goal. A difficult challenge though presents itself immediately. Personal responsibility. Parents must step to the forefront in solving this problem. It would be a dangerous line for the government to cross to mandate how parents can raise their children and what they can or must feed them. Parents have the freedom to raise their children as they deem appropriate, but with personal freedom comes personal responsibility. Unfortunately, far too many parents come up woefully short in taking on this responsibility.

I understand social pressures (including advertisements of fast food, the convenience and affordability of many junk foods), but I will not exculpate parents who compromise the health of their children. What goes into your child's body should be of great concern to parents. I support any and all programs designed to educate parents and all individuals of the importance of eating well and in presenting accurate information on what that might consist of. However, there comes a point when education can only take you so far.

As a day camp counselor, I had a little 6 year-old obese camper named Ryan. Ryan's lunch each day usually consisted of a sandwhich, desert of some kind (candy bar, brownie, twinkie), a bag of chips, and a coke (and sometimes two cokes). That to me is offensive. I am not saying that I know what is best and kids cant drink coke or eat pizza or have candy, but parents have to have judgment and exercise it reasonably. The kid w/ an incredible metabolism that is incredibly active might be able to eat a cheeseburger and drink sweetened juices more often than Ryan. Of course if Ryan's parents switch out his cheetos for carrot sticks he will complain, but that is what parents are for - to do what is best for their kids.

If you believe Ryan's parents have the right to feed Ryan exorbitant amounts of sugars and saturated fats given all of his circumstances than I completely disagree. Obesity is not a lifestyle choice (especially not for a child), it is a medical condition. It cannot be ignored and Ryan's parents contribution to it certainly cannot be condoned. I am an absolute defender of personal liberties and personal choice. I do not want anyone telling me how to raise my children, but there comes a point where a line is crossed. If my kid has developed a condition that will expose him to a heightened risk of developing legitimately life threatening illnesses not to mention depression then I have forfeited my right to raise him as I choose at least with respect to his diet and nutrition.

I apologize for the sloppiness of this post.

Why I can grade the draft and more recap:

I will ignore the repeated cries that you cannot grade a draft the day after it happens because you can. I dont know which of the first round picks will inevitably be a bust, but that does not stop you from analyzing the value teams got for their draft picks. Draft picks are like currency and prospects are the commodities teams invest in with that currency. So if D. Heyward Bey ends up being a pro-bowler that does not completely undermine those that criticise the Raiders for taking him 7th because he was a $20 commodity the Raiders paid $35 for. So if he turns out to be worth $40, the Raiders made a good pick and made $5, but if they had traded back and taken him at say #12 ($25) they would have made $15. The numbers are arbitrary, but the analogy makes sense. Players have almost an expected value that like a stock is determined by the aggregate opinion of market participants (drafting teams) and so just like you do not want to overpay for a security you do not want to reach for a draft pick. Of course one might ask about team need and how need surely affects value and it certainly does. Therefore, w/in a small band a player maybe more valuable to a team in need of that style/position player than another team and thus it may make sense to take him slightly higher than his aggregated value. This is similar to how buying a particular stock may be more or less advantageous to different investors based on the composition of the rest of their portfolio (diversification effect).

Now that that is done with I will proceed to the meat of this post: Why the Eagles had the best draft of any team and it is really not even arguable (some might say the Bears bc they added a mid-20s pro-bowl QB, but his value must be split between this years draft and next since they gave up firsts in each so they fall out of contention for this title).

Team Needs Leading up to Draft: LT, RB, TE, S, CB, #1WR?

Draft:
#19 - WR Jeremy Maclin - Maclin was the #1 WR in this draft on the board's of 18 teams. Possessing good size and excellent speed and quickness, Maclin is simply a playmaker. Though his route-running needs refinement, he has all the ability to in time emerge as a true #1 WR. Getting Maclin at #19 represents arguably the best value pick of the first round.

#28 - LT Jason Peters - acquired in a trade w/ Buffalo - instead of using this pick on an unproven rookie, the Eagles were able to go out and secure a 27 yr old 2-time pro-bowl LT to man the most important spot on the line. The financial cost was very high, but that is the going rate for all-pro LTs.

#53 - RB LeSean McCoy - perhaps no back in this draft was a better fit for the Eagles system than McCoy. McCoy is in many ways similar to current pro-bowl Eagle RB Brian Westbrook. W/ excellent vision, lateral quickness, burst and above all an excellent feel for the passing game McCoy is a natural complement and eventual successor for Westbrook. Additionally, his selection at #53 represents another tremendous value as he was almost across the board viewed at least a top 45 player.

#153 - TE Cornelius Ingram - Value, value value. Rated the #44 player in the draft by ESPN's Scouts Inc., Ingram is a difference maker in the passing game from the TE position. Having only played the position for two years of college ball Ingram has as much upside at the position as perhaps any player in the draft. Though he still must fully recover from knee surgery and improve his blocking, Ingram should be the Eagles starting TE by 2010.

#157 - CB/S Victor "Macho Harris - Value again. The #113 ranked player in the draft, Harris was 1st-team All-ACC in 2007 and 2008. A physical and instinctive CB in college Harris' biggest weakness is pure speed which is why he profiles as a S for the Eagles. Playing S will allow Harris to maximize his elite ball skills.

CB Ellis Hobbs - acquired for the low price of two 5th round picks, the 25 yr old Hobbs is reunited w/ former teamate Asante Samuel. While not a pro-bowler, Hobbs is a legitimate #2 starting CB who would see significant playing time for any team in the league. Coming off somewhat of a down season (he did not blossom into the pro-bowl player the Patriots thought he would when Samuel departed) he will be highly motivated to perform as he enters the final year of this contract. In a league where you can never have too many good CBs, Hobbs provides even more protection for the Eagles as they deal w/ disgruntled CB Sheldon Brown

Additionally, through draft day maneuvering, the Eagles procured additional 3rd, 5th, and 6th round picks in next years draft.

Finally, the Eagles added a bunch of Samoans in the late rounds of the draft. As far as I am concerned there is no downside to this strategy. If they pan out great, if not they will at the least lighten the mood in training camp and perhaps share some cool Samoan dances the players inevitably will love.

So in conclusion, value throughout and they essentially met every team need while adding valuable picks in next years draft.

1st Round Recap

Picks I Really Liked:
- DT BJ Raji #9 to GB
- WR Michael Crabtree #10 to SF
- DE Brian Orakpo #13 to Wash
- DB Malcolm Jenkins #14 to NO
- TE Brandon Pettigrew #20 to DET
- OT Michael Oher #23 to BAL
- DT Peria Jerry #24 to ATL
- RB Chris Wells #31 to ARZ

Picks I really did not like:
- WR Darius Heyward-Bey #7 to OAK
- OLB Brian Cushing #15 to HOU
- OLB Clay Matthews #26 to GB (just gave up to much to move up and get him)
- DE/OLB Larry English #16 to SD

Live 1st Round Draft Analysis

1) Detroit - QB Matthew Stafford
Ananlysis: Do I like the pick? Not really, but the Lions were in a tough spot. The big issue here is the ridiculous contract. Also, I wonder how the fans at the draft decide how to cheer for random teams/players as Stafford's announcement was met with a chorus of boos.

2) St. Louis - OT Jason Smith
Analysis: This pick likely came down to Smith and Sanchez and they took the OT. I think it was the right move. Smith is super-athletic (caught 6 passes for 70 yds and a TD as a freshmen TE) and fills a gaping whole. Sanchez would have been a good pick, Smith is the better pick.

3) Kansas City - DE Tyson Jackson
Analysis: Jackson is the best 3-4 end in this draft, though his overall grade might not justify this spot. He definitely fills a need and might portend a trade of last years 1st round pick Glenn Dorsey (to Atlanta?) who is not a good fit in the Chiefs new scheme. Aaron Curry is a great prospect, but generally you dont make this type of financial commitment to a 3-4 ILB.

4) Seattle - LB Aaron Curry
Analysis: The trade of Julian Peterson clearly opened the door for Seattle to take who many had as the top overall player in the draft. Sanchez and Monroe would have been understandable picks, but Curry helps most in 2009 and Seattle thinks if healthy they can win their division this year.

5) New York Jets from Cle - QB Mark Sanchez
Analysis: I felt all along the Jets would move up if Sanchez dropped past the top few picks and they did. Talent-wise Sanchez presents a clear upgrade and promise for the future at the most important position on the field. I thought the Jets would have to give up much more to make this move, but Mangini as most coaches do (over)value players they are familiar with.

6) Cincinnati - OT Andre Smith
Analysis: Bengals had 3 great options here with Smith, Monroe, and Raji. Certain teams had serious questions about Monroe's health and the Bengals might have been one of those teams. This pick fills a big hole and makes alot of sense.

7) Oakland - WR Darius Heyward-Bey
Analysis: Wow. This had been rumored based on Al Davis' love of speed, but I just did not believe it. Heyward-Bey is at this point clearly a better athlete than WR and Oakland probably could have traded down and still got him. Personally, if speed is what they were after, I think Jeremy Maclin provides similar speed with superior hands, shiftiness, and route-running skills.

8) Jacksonville - OT Eugene Monroe
Analysis: OL has been a problem for Jacksonville the last few seasons and Monroe provides a longterm infusion of talent. Crabtree, Maclin, and Raji all would have been fine picks. Assuming his health is not an issue, Monroe is a fine pick though Crabtree and Raji are probably better players.

9) Green Bay - NT B.J. Raji
Analysis: This is the absolute right pick. A great nose tackle is the key to good 3-4 defense and Raji has a chance to man that difficult position to fill as GB makes their schematic switch. This pick was a no-brainer and was an excellent match of need and value.

10) San Francisco - WR Michael Crabtree
Analysis: No-brainer. SF has not had a #1 WR since T.O. and that was a long time ago. Crabtree will open up the entire offense and benefit whoever is playing QB. Great pick considering value and need.

11) Buffalo - DE Aaron Maybin
Analysis: It was pretty clear the Bills were going to go DE with this pick and the question was Maybin or Orakpo. I might have gone Orakpo, but do not have a real problem with the pick as Maybin is raw, but has the pure ability to get after the QB.

12) Denver - RB Knowshon Moreno
Analysis: Denver had Tyson Jackson and BJ Raji on top of their board and once they were gone the offensive head coach Josh McDaniels made this call to take the best RB in the draft. Surprised it happened at 12 and not 18. Also, Denver added some RBs in FA, but none have the talent of Moreno.

13) Washington - DE Brian Orakpo
Analysis: Another no-brainer. Orakpo will be an excellent addition to the Redskin defense and fills a huge need. Playing next to Haynesworth will only make life easier for Orakpo and harder for opposing offenses. Great pick.

14) New Orleans - DB Malcom Williams
Analysis: Great pick. Makes alot of sense. The back seven needed an infusion of talent and Williams provides that, likely at FS.

15) Houston - OLB Brian Cushing
Analysis: I hate this pick. Safety was a bigger need and WR Jeremy Maclin was a better value. I would have taken Maclin or traded back and looked for Clay Matthews or S Louis Delmas. I have major concerns about Cushing both in terms of durability and upside. Many believe his frame is maxed out. As a Texans fan I am very dissappointed.

16) San Diego - DE/OLB Larry English
Analysis: I really thought SD not having a second round pick would trade down out of this spot even if not for full value. English carried a legit late first round grade and provides insurance for Merriman's recovery. I think OT M. Oher would have been a better value and filled a more immediate need.

17) Tampa Bay from Cleveland - QB Josh Freeman
Analysis: TB has been linked to Freeman for months so this is not a shocker. Freeman has alot of growing and learning to do so patience will be the key for him. He has the physical tools, but more or less everything else is the question. Bust potential here and perhaps a reach, but if a team has a conviction on a QB that you might not have a chance at later then it is probably a reasonable pick.

18) Denver - DE Robert Ayers
Analysis: Ayers has the size to come in and play end in Denver's new 3-4 scheme. This pick represents good value and fills a team need.

19) Philly from Cleveland - WR Jeremy Maclin
Analysis: I am sort of conflicted with this pick. It represents a tremendous value, but I do have questions about whether it might not have been better to trade the pick for a Braylon Edwards or Anquan Boldin. Also, Pettigrew would have been a good choice as well though there should be TE options available in round 2. Back to Maclin, he is a fantastic talent that needs to refine his route-running, but has the tools to be a pro-bowl caliber WR. He was the #11 player in the entire draft according to ESPN's Scouts Inc and #10 on Mel Kiper's big board.

20) Detroit - TE Brandon Pettigrew
Analysis: The Lions had some very good options in Pettigrew, Oher, and Jerry. Pettigrew is a very good pick that provides great value and fills a need. This pick will really benefit #1 pick M. Stafford.

21) Cleveland from Philly - C Alex Mack
Analysis: I thought this would be a rush LB such as Everette Brown, but Mack was the top rated C in the draft and will provide a boost to Clevelands OL. A reasonable pick.

22) Minnesota - WR Percy Harvin
Analysis: Despite all of his red flags, Harvin has been linked to Minnesota and provides a potential playmaker that could free room for Adrian Peterson to operate. The Vikings could have used an OL such as M. Oher or Ebon Britton, but chose to take a chance on one of the drafts most explosive players.

23) Baltimore from NE - OT Michael Oher
Analysis: Great pick. Tremendous value and is an upgrade for Baltimore's o-line that must go up against the Steelers defense twice a season. There are questions about Oher and he is far from a sure thing, but the talent is here and at pick #23 the price is right in terms of value and money.

24) Atlanta - DT Peria Jerry
Analysis: Jerry has been linked to the Falcons for some time as DT was a glaring hole. At this spot in the draft he presents good value and fills a need. I like this pick.

25) Miami - CB Vontae Davis
Analysis: CB and WR were the Dolphin's biggest needs and they get perhaps the best pure corner in the draft in Davis. There are issues about his mental approach to the game (much like his brother Vernon), but he has the size and all of the physical tools (again like his brother) to be an elite corner. Good value, good pick.

26) Green Bay from NE - Clay Matthews OLB
Analysis: A bit of a surprise pick with an OT like Ebon Britton and a rush LB Everette Brown on the board, but he does project as a good fit as a 3-4 OLB. An ok pick depending on what they had to give up to get this high.

27) Indy - RB Donald Brown
Analysis: I did not see this pick coming at all. I figured Indy to address DT (Z. Hood) or a WR. That said Brown fits Indy's system and should be a good compliment to Joseph Addai. Still not sure if Indy did not have bigger needs.

28) Buffalo - C Eric Wood
Analysis: The #2 rated center in the draft that carried a legit high 2nd round grade will provide a big upgrade to Buffalo's o-line. Ok value and fills a need. An ok pick.

29) NY Giants - WR Hakeem Nicks
Analysis: Everyone knew this was almost a lock to be a WR and the only question was which one. Nicks and Kenny Britt were the highest rated WRs left on the board and Nicks is a good selection. He has only marginal speed, but he is physical, has good hands, and can contribute quite quickly. Good value and fills a hole = good pick.

30) Tenn Titans - WR Kenny Britt
Analysis: The Titans have needed WR help for some time and Nate Washington is not the total answer to their problem. Britt figured to go about this spot in the draft and fits in well with the Titans both in terms of need and value.

31) Arizona - RB Chris "Beanie" Wells
Analysis: This was likely to be a RB all along and despite durability concerns, Wells is a great talent and a fantastic value at this point in the draft. Very good pick.

32) Pitt Steelers - DL Evander Hood
Analysis: Classic Steelers pick. Hood is a good versatile player that can slide along the Steelers line providing great youth and depth. Reasonable pick.

2009 NFL Mock Draft

Any mock draft made before the draft in incredibly difficult because of the inevitable flurry of trade activity that shakes up the draft. Also, there is the inherent struggle in choosing to mock what teams should do as opposed to what they will do. The above mock is based primarily on what teams will do. This differs significantly from what I think teams should do (which often involves trades so that teams recognize appropriate value and not just meet team need).

The Bias of the SAT

"The overall SAT results were broken into 10 family-income blocks, beginning at less than $10,000. They increase in $10,000 increments to students with family income levels greater than $100,000. Students from families with less than a $10,000 income scored a mean of 429 in critical reading, which improved to 445 in the $10,000 to $20,000 income range. That score jumped in each of the next eight income groups, peaking at 549 with students from families earning more than $100,000. The same trend occurred in math: Students at the lowest-end income level had a mean score of 457, which crept to 465, 474, 488, 501 and then 509 in the $50,000-$60,000 range. The numbers kept improving to a mean score of 564 at the $100,000 and above level.
Typically, each $10,000 income increase corresponded to a 10- to 12-point gain in the mean score of each test section. The only significant variation was between students from families earning between $80,000 and $100,000 and those earning more than $100,000. In those categories, mean scores jumped 26, 30 and 29 points, respectively, in critical reading, math and writing.

Those results correlated with the Baltimore-area school district median income numbers. Howard County, with the United States’ third-highest median income, at $91,184, scored higher than Anne Arundel with median income of $71,961, which scored higher than Harford at $65,343. The trend continued down to Baltimore County at $56,295, which scored higher than Baltimore City at $32,456." - http://www.examiner.com/a-254205~SAT_scores_tied_to_income_level_locally__nationally.html?cid=rss-Baltimore






The graph is fairly straightforward and goes represents the core issue, that is that a particular test taker's household income has more predictive value than does his race. The question then becomes what exactly should be done to recognize this phenomenon and correct for it.

A logical starting question is whether or not race and household income (poverty in particular) are so intertwined as to undermine the value of making any distinction in the first place. According to 2007 census numbers approximately 10% of black households earn more than $100,00 per year. Meanwhile, that number is 21.5% for whites, 31% for Asians, and 11% for hispanics. My takeaway from this is that any racially based method of adjusting SAT scores would at the same time be over and under inclusive. It would doubtless provide a great benefit to a large number of minorities, whom are in a very real sense undervalued by such an income sensitive test. However, such a proposal would unjustifiably benefit tens of thousands of minorities that come from households earning more than $100,000. At the same time, a race based adjustment (whether directly or indirectly) would fail to provide a similar benefit to the hundreds of thousands of white and asian students coming from impoverished households.

I briefly take this time to point out that this analysis is equally applicable for most race based programs designed to compensate for the underrepresentation of minorities in colleges. Most of the justifications for such programs are fundamentally flawed. These arguments in support of race based programs mistake correlation for causation. The important reality is not that minorities are underrepresented because they are minorities, but rather minorities are represented because a higher percentage of them come from lower-income households. Therefore, any race based program is inherently not narrowly tailored to achieve an otherwise legitimate and praiseworthy goal.

Without a feasible way to adjust SAT scores for household income (in an imperfect attempt to account for the income bias) I might support the movement of some schools that have moved towards making the SAT optional.

(I disclose that the data does indicate race has some predictive value of SAT score performance apart from household income, but this predictive value is of a much smaller magnitude than income).

You are what you read and you read what you are.

It has oft been stated that the source of our news shapes our views and beliefs about politics and the world. However, there is an equally, less recognized flip side to that coin. That is that our views and beliefs shape the source of our news. This principle is not surprising and is easy to recognize and explain.

Your blue-hearted liberal is apt to start their day with the NY Times and wind it down with Keith Olberman or the like in the evening. Conversely, the red-bloods may look to Fox News after dinner.

The effect of this principle is also not surprising. It is little more than an affirmation loop that recycles and instills a particular set of beliefs. This is not to be so demeaning as to say people believe everything they are given or that they do not think for themselves. Rather, it only states that if I believe in low taxes and I like to read the WSJ, these two are not wholly independent from each other. The more I like low taxes, the more I read the WSJ and vice versa.

My examples so far have greatly simplified the equation. A greater problem now is the diversity of sources that line up ideologically on either side. Now there are so many that a conservative could realistically get his news from six different sources, but still be getting only one opinion. This can lead someone into thinking they are exposing themselves to a variety of points of view when in fact that is not the case.

The ultimate product of this cycle is individuals (quite intelligent ones at that) that have entrenched themselves so far into one side of the spectrum that opposing views become hostile, dangerous, and unwelcome. And why shouldn’t they be since they are contrary to what is in my news and in my beliefs.

I believe that this choice is natural. Many of the issues out there are tough issues and the answers are not cut and dry. It is easier to take a hard line with one side and allow that decision to be continually reaffirmed instead of being open to questioning it.

Take taxes or the stimulus bill or whether banks are too big to fail for instance. These subjects are incredibly complex with amazingly intelligent people holding strongly differing views. What is amazing to me is the confidence the average person maintains with respect to their personal views on the subject (especially people with no economic or financial background). The bank issue cannot even be discussed without understanding the derivative swap and counterparty positions that have entangled our financial system. Yet, 30 minutes with a cable news show and a morning or two with a newspaper and it becomes so simple?
I do not propose that everyone must follow up O’Reilly with Olberman or be fully informed on every issue. I simply suggest that maybe everything is not as simple as our favorite news source suggests and before expressing a firm opinion on a subject or indignation towards the opinion of another, we might take a step backward and consider other possibilities.

Stimulating Thoughts: Part 2 - "Bipartisanship"

"Genuine bipartisanship assumes an honest process of give-and-take, and that the quality of the compromise is measured by how well it serves some agreed-upon goal, whether better schools or lower deficits. This in turn assumes that the majority will be constrained -- by an exacting press corps and ultimately an informed electorate -- to negotiate in good faith.

"If these conditions do not hold -- if nobody outside Washington is really paying attention to the substance of the bill, if the true costs . . . are buried in phony accounting and understated by a trillion dollars or so -- the majority party can begin every negotiation by asking for 100% of what it wants, go on to concede 10%, and then accuse any member of the minority party who fails to support this 'compromise' of being 'obstructionist.'

"For the minority party in such circumstances, 'bipartisanship' comes to mean getting chronically steamrolled, although individual senators may enjoy certain political rewards by consistently going along with the majority and hence gaining a reputation for being 'moderate' or 'centrist.'" [Emphasis added]

I found this interesting.

The excerpt above is from Barak Obama's 2006 book, "The Audacity of Hope".

2009 NBA Trade Value Rankings

The following is my personal version of Bill Simmons NBA Trade Value Rankings:

A quick recap of the rules:
1. Salaries matter. Over this season and the next two, would you rather pay David West $27 million or Amare Stoudemire $43 million?
2. Age matters. Would you rather have Chauncey Billups for the next five seasons or Rajon Rondo for the next 12?
3. Pretend the league passed the following rule: For 24 hours, any player can be traded without cap ramifications but with luxury-tax ramifications. So if Team A tells Team B, "We'll trade you Player X for Player Y," would Team B make the deal?
4. Concentrate on degrees. Neither San Antonio nor Orlando would make a Howard-Duncan trade, but the Spurs would at least say, "Wow, Dwight Howard's available?" and have a meeting about it while the Magic would say, "There's no frickin' way we're trading Dwight Howard." That counts in the big scheme of things.
5. The list runs in reverse order (Nos. 50 to 1). So if Carmelo comes in at No. 16, players 1 through 15 are all players about whom the Nuggets would probably say, "We hate giving up 'Melo, but we definitely have to consider this deal." And they wouldn't trade him straight-up for any player listed between Nos. 17 and 50.

The List:
50. Luis Scola, PF HOU
49. David Lee, PF NYK
48. Chauncey Billups, PG DEN
47. Hedo Turkoglu, F ORL
46. Russell Westbrook, G OKC
45. Kevin Love, PF MIN
44. Luol Deng, G/F CHI
43. Monta Ellis, G GSW
42. Paul Millsap, PF UTA
41. Michael Beasley, PF MIA
40. Jameer Nelson, PG ORL
39. Steve Nash, PG PHO
38. Brook Lopez, C NJ
37. Greg Oden, C POR
36. A. Biedrins, C GSW
35. Andrew Bynum, C LAL
34. Rudy Gay, SF MEM
33. Josh Smith, F ATL
32. Caron Butler, F WASH
31. OJ Mayo, SG MEM
30. Carlos Boozer, PF UTA (injuries only reason he is this low)
29. Devin Harris, PG NJ
28. Kevin Martin, SG SAC
27. Al Horford, F/C ATL
26. Lamarcus Aldridge, PF POR
25. Manu Ginobili, G/F SAS
24. David West, PF NOR
23. Rajon Rondo, PG BOS
22. Al Jefferson, F/C MIN
21. Kevin Garnett, PF BOS
20. Pau Gasol, F/C LAL
19. Tony Parker, PG SAS
18. Amare Stoudemire, PF PHO
17. Joe Johnson, SG ATL
16. Paul Pierce, G/F BOS
15. Danny Granger, SF IND
14. Dirk Nowitzki, PF DAL
13. Chris Bosh, PF TOR
12. Carmelo Anthony, SF DEN
11. Deron Williams, PG UTA
10. Derrick Rose, PG CHI
9. Brandon Roy, SG POR
8. Yao Ming, C HOU
7. Tim Duncan, PF SAS
6. Kevin Durant, SG OKC
5. Kobe Bryant, SG LAL
4. Dwayne Wade, SG MIA
3. Chris Paul, PG NOR
2. Dwight Howard, C ORL
1. LeBron James, SF CLE

Quick Update:

Falling off the list -
Yao (injuries)
Garnett (age)
Biedrins (he is not good at basketball
Billups (age)
Turkoglu (age, struggled in different systems)
Deng (contract vs. ability)
Oden (injuries)

Falling down the list -
B. Roy (durability)
Duncan (age)
C. Butler (age, other players risen above him)
Joe Johnson (contract)
Chris Bosh (contract)

Entering the list -
Roy Hibbert
John Wall
Tyreke Evans
Blake Griffin
Steph Curry
Eric Gordon
A. Bargnani

Shooting up the list -
Brook Lopez
Russell Westbrook
Rajon Rondo
Kevin Love

Executive Pay Politics

Executive Pay, particularly on Wall Street, is a hot button topic that easily gets the emotions going on Main Street. Considering the pay packages for Wall Street executives such as Dick Fuld of Lehman Brothers, (who earned on average in excess of $40 million a year over a six year period preceding his company’s collapse) much of this ire is well deserved. Few rational compensation experts would argue the compensation setting process is not broken and in dire need of correction.

Such a situation is ripe for political opportunists to gain favor with the public by speaking out against this evil. On February 4th, President Obama announced new pay restrictions on executives at banks that receive “exceptional assistance” from the government. (Days earlier it was reported Merrill Lynch had sped up bonus payments exceeding $3.6 billion just weeks after the firm received significant infusions of tax payer money). Under Obama's plan, companies that want to pay their executives more than $500,000 will have to do so through stocks that cannot be sold until the companies pay back the money they borrow from the government. However, within hours of the announcement, commentators pointed out clear loopholes and shortcomings in Obama’s pay restrictions that rendered the plan almost useless. (See “Loopholes Sap Potency of Pay Limits”).
Let there be no confusion here. Obama’s plan was not carelessly put together. It was not poor, hurried drafting that left these loopholes. Rather, the restrictions were carefully crafted to be more or less ineffective. It was essentially a political statement that the President is in touch with the people and that he also condemns the lavish Wall Street pay days. It was rhetoric to please the people while not really doing anything to alienate or upset Wall Street.

So it was not surprising that the Obama administration opposed the much more biting restrictions Senator Dodd included in the final version of the stimulus bill. (See Bankers Face Strict New Pay Cap). In contrast to Obama’s, these pay restrictions are effective retroactively and have the ability to apply to a substantial number of firms where Obama’s plan would have applied to exceedingly few if any.

In Obama’s defense Senator Dodd’s restrictions are misguided and overbearing. Not that the pay system at financial institutions as well as most other companies does not need fixing, but as the President knows, this is one of those things much easier said than done. A strict pay cap is perhaps one of the worst ways to correct the underlying problems that ultimately led pay practices to where they are today. The true solution lies in correcting the compensation setting process. That is in: increased director independence and accountability to shareholders, increased disclosure requirements that make it clear to the board, shareholders, and regulators precisely how much executives are being paid (as recently as 2005 less than 10% of companies used any form of tally sheet to sum up all of an executives compensation and those that have moved to a tally sheet have been surprised at just how much their executives actually make when including options, perks, deferred compensation and SERPs), and far less reliance on compensation surveys that are completely inflated by years of bad data.

The point is, as it always is, that the truth lies in the details and not in the rhetoric of politicians even that of the rock star President Obama (currently enjoying approval levels twice that of Congress). Like his pay restrictions, I fear his stimulus package promises far more than it will deliver, that its true impact today lies in the increased size and power of the federal government and that the most lasting economic impact it will have will not be felt even during his term in office, but will be a weight borne by this nation’s youth.

Stimulating Thoughts - Part 1 - "Not one of us have read this bill."

"1,073 Pages"

"The 1,073-page monstrosity includes the biggest spending increase since World War II, but more important is the fine print expanding the role of the federal government across the breadth of American business, health care, energy and welfare policy.
Given those stakes, you might think Congress would get more than a few hours to debate it. But, no, yesterday's roll call votes came less than 24 hours after House-Senate conferees had agreed to their deal. Democrats rushed the bill to the floor before Members could even read it, much less have time to broadcast the details so the public could offer its verdict."

rest of the article at:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123456958734386181.html

Comments to come later.